Development and validation of a clinical nomogram for differentiating hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke prehospital

Abstract

Objectives: The early detection and identification of stroke are essential to the prognosis of patients with suspected stroke symptoms out-of-hospital. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model based on the FAST score to identify the different types of strokes early for emergency medical services (EMS). Methods: This retrospective observational study enrolled 394 stroke patients at a single center from January 2020 to December 2021. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, and stroke risk factors with patients were collected from the EMS record database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk predictors. The nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors, in which the discriminative value and calibration of the nomogram were verified by the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plots. Results: A total of 31.90% (88/276) of patients were diagnosed with hemorrhagic stroke in the training set, while 36.40% (43/118) in the validation set. The nomogram was developed based on the multivariate analysis, including age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, vomiting, arm weakness, and slurred speech. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC with nomogram was 0.796 (95% CI: 0.740-0.852,P<0.001) and 0.808 (95% CI:0.728-0.887, P<0.001) in the training set and validation set, respectively. In addition, the AUC with the nomogram was superior to the FAST score in both two sets. The calibration curve showed a good agreement with the nomogram and the decision curves analysis also demonstrated that the nomogram had a wider range of threshold probabilities than the FAST score in the prediction risk of hemorrhagic stroke. Conclusions: This novel noninvasive clinical nomogram shows a good performance in differentiating hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke for EMS staff prehospital. Moreover, all of the variables of nomogram are acquired in clinical practice easily and inexpensively out-of-hospital.