Development and validation of a predictive model for poor prognosis of communication disorders in children with cerebral palsy after cervical perivascular sympathectomy

Abstract

Cervical perivascular sympathectomy (CPVS) can improve communication disorders in children with cerebral palsy (CP); however, there are no research reports on the factors affecting surgical efficacy. This study aimed to establish a nomogram for poor prognosis after CPVS. We collected data from 313 CP patients who underwent CPVS at the Neurosurgery Cerebral Palsy Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2019 to January 2023. Among them, 70% (n = 216) formed the training cohort and 30% (n = 97) the validation cohort. The general data and laboratory examination data of both groups were analyzed. In training cohort, 82 (37.96%) showed improved postoperative communication function. Logistic analysis identified motor function, serum alkaline phosphatase, serum albumin, and prothrombin activity as the prognostic factors. Using these four factors, a prediction model was constructed with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.743–0.870), indicating its ability to predict adverse outcomes after CPVS. The validation cohort results showed an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.650–0.869). The consistency curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow test (χ2 = 10.988 and p = 0.202, respectively) demonstrated good consistency between the model-predicted incidence and the actual incidence of poor prognosis. Motor function, serum alkaline phosphatase, serum albumin, and prothrombin activity are independent risk factors associated with the prognosis of communication disorders after CPVS. The combined prediction model has a good clinical prediction effect and has promising potential to be used for early prediction of prognosis of CPVS.