Development and validation of a computed tomography-based radiomics signature to predict “highest-risk” from patients with high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumor

Abstract

Background Some patients with high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) experience disease progression after complete resection and adjuvant therapy. It is of great significance to distinguish these patients among those with high-risk GIST. Radiomics has been demonstrated as a promising tool to predict various tumors prognosis. Methods From January 2006 to December 2018, a total of 100 high-risk GIST patients (training cohort: 60; validation cohort: 40) from Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital with preoperative enhanced computed tomography (CT) images were enrolled. The radiomics features were extracted and a risk score was built using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-Cox model. The clinicopathological factors were analyzed and a nomogram was established with and without radiomics risk score. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomograms. Results We selected 11 radiomics features associated with recurrence or metastasis. The risk score was calculated and significantly associated with disease-free survival (DFS) in both the training and validation group. Cox regression analysis showed that Ki67 was an independent risk factor for DFS [P=0.004, hazard ratio 4.615, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.624–13.114]. The combined radiomics nomogram, which integrated the radiomics risk score and significant clinicopathological factors, showed good performance in predicting DFS, with a C-index of 0.832 (95% CI: 0.761–0.903), which was better than the clinical nomogram (C-index 0.769, 95% CI: 0.679–0.859) in training cohort. The calibration curves and the DCA plot suggested satisfying accuracy and clinical utility of the model. Conclusions The CT-based radiomics nomogram, combined with the clinicopathological factors and risk score, has good potential to assess the recurrence or metastasis of patients with high-risk GIST.