Development and validation of a nomogram for blood transfusion during intracranial aneurysm clamping surgery: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Purpose Intraoperative blood transfusion is associated with adverse events. We aimed to establish a machine learning model to predict the probability of intraoperative blood transfusion during intracranial aneurysm surgery. Methods Patients, who underwent intracranial aneurysm surgery in our hospital between January 2019 and December 2021 were enrolled. Four machine learning models were benchmarked and the best learning model was used to establish the nomogram, before conducting a discriminative assessment. Results A total of 375 patients were included for analysis in this model, among whom 108 received an intraoperative blood transfusion during the intracranial aneurysm surgery. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator identified six preoperative relative factors: hemoglobin, platelet, D-dimer, sex, white blood cell, and aneurysm rupture before surgery. Performance evaluation of the classification error demonstrated the following: K-nearest neighbor, 0.2903; logistic regression, 0.2290; ranger, 0.2518; and extremely gradient boosting model, 0.2632. A nomogram based on a logistic regression algorithm was established using the above six parameters. The AUC values of the nomogram were 0.828 (0.775, 0.881) and 0.796 (0.710, 0.882) in the development and validation groups, respectively. Conclusions Machine learning algorithms present a good performance evaluation of intraoperative blood transfusion. The nomogram established using a logistic regression algorithm showed a good discriminative ability to predict intraoperative blood transfusion during aneurysm surgery.