Development and validation of a novel prognostic prediction system based on GLIM-defined malnutrition for colorectal cancer patients post-radical surgery

Abstract

BackgroundMalnutrition often occurs in patients with colorectal cancer. This study aims to develop a predictive model based on GLIM criteria for patients with colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery.MethodsFrom December 2015 to May 2021, patients with colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery at our center were recruited for this study. We prospectively collected data on GLIM-defined malnutrition and other clinicopathological characteristics. Using Cox regeneration, we developed a novel nomogram for prognostic prediction, which was validated and compared to traditional nutritional factors for predictive accuracy.ResultsAmong the 983 patients enrolled in this study, malnutrition was identified in 233 (23.70%) patients. Multivariate analysis indicated that GLIM-defined malnutrition is the independent risk factor for overall survival (HR = 1.793, 95% CI = 1.390–2.313 for moderate malnutrition and HR = 3.485, 95% CI = 2.087–5.818 for severe malnutrition). The novel nomogram based on the GLIM criteria demonstrated a better performance than existing criteria, with AUC of 0.729, 0.703, and 0.683 for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS, respectively, in the validation cohort. In addition, the risk score determined by this system exhibited significantly poorer short-term and long-term clinical outcomes in high-risk groups in both malnourished and well-nourished patients.ConclusionCombining handgrip strength, serum albumin level, and TNM stage would help improve the predictive effect of GLIM criteria for colorectal cancer patients post-radical surgery and benefit the individual prognostic prediction of colorectal cancer.