Development and validation of a nomogram to better predict hypertension based on a 10-year retrospective cohort study in China

Abstract

Background:Hypertension is a highly prevalent disorder. A nomogram to estimate the risk of hypertension in Chinese individuals is not available.Methods:6201 subjects were enrolled in the study and randomly divided into training set and validation set at a ratio of 2:1. The LASSO regression technique was used to select the optimal predictive features, and multivariate logistic regression to construct the nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed and validated by AUC, C-index, calibration curves, DCA, clinical impact curves, NRI, and IDI.Results:The nomogram140/90 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, BMI, MCHC, MPV, TBIL, and TG. AUCs of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram140/90 were 0.750 in the training set and 0.772 in the validation set. The nomogram130/80 was developed with the parameters of family history of hypertension, age, SBP, DBP, RDWSD, and TBIL. AUCs of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. C-index of nomogram130/80 were 0.705 in the training set and 0.697 in the validation set. Both nomograms demonstrated favorable clinical consistency. NRI and IDI showed that the nomogram140/90 exhibited superior performance than the nomogram130/80. Therefore, the web-based calculator of nomogram140/90 was built online.Conclusions:We have constructed a nomogram that can be effectively used in the preliminary and in-depth risk prediction of hypertension in a Chinese population based on a 10-year retrospective cohort study.Funding:This study was supported by the Hebei Science and Technology Department Program (no. H2018206110).

Development and Validation of a Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model to Predict High Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents—Findings From 342,736 Individuals in China

“…To improve the approach to avoid the concerns of model overfitting, the predictive value of the nomogram is easy to handle, and was evaluated based on highly discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in separate internal training and validation datasets. One recent publication has developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening hypertension among Chinese adults ( 51 ). Targeting this large-scale study on the youth population, our study suggests that nine predictors are significantly associated with HBP among youths.…”

Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model to predict the High blood pressure in Children and Adolescents —— Finding from 342,736 individual in China

“…To improved approach avoided the concerns of model overfitting, the predictive value of the nomogram is easy to handle, which was evaluated based on highly discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility in separate internal training and validation datasets. One recent publication has developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening the hypertension among Chinese adults (Deng et al, 2021). Targeting on the large-scale study on youth population, our study suggest that 9 predictors are significantly associated with HBP among youths.…”

Development and validation of prediction models for hypertension risks: A cross-sectional study based on 4,287,407 participants

“…Our findings also suggest that ECG was an important predictor of hypertension, which was consistent with other studies ( 60 – 62 ). The pathogenesis of DM and hypertension mutually promote and influence each other ( 63 – 65 ), which makes the prediction models have a general limitation and may not be applicable to the DM population ( 7 , 13 , 66 ). In order to avoid this deficiency, this important factor was considered in the inclusion of risk factors and was included as a predictor of hypertension, and the results also showed its important role in predicting hypertension.…”