2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.19.21260759
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Development and validation of a prognostic model for COVID-19: a population-based cohort study in Iceland

Abstract: Background: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 at the time of diagnosis and determine risk factors for severe disease. Methods: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived f… Show more

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“…Rheumatic disease characteristics and medications identified as important risk factors in predicting COVID-19 ARDS align with previously reported factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or death in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41). Other risk factors, including older age, obesity, chronic lung disease, and chronic kidney disease, were also consistent with risk factors identified by a recently published prognostic model for adverse COVID-19 outcomes using information obtained at diagnosis in a general population-based cohort from Iceland (42).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 87%
“…Rheumatic disease characteristics and medications identified as important risk factors in predicting COVID-19 ARDS align with previously reported factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalization or death in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41). Other risk factors, including older age, obesity, chronic lung disease, and chronic kidney disease, were also consistent with risk factors identified by a recently published prognostic model for adverse COVID-19 outcomes using information obtained at diagnosis in a general population-based cohort from Iceland (42).…”
Section: Discussionsupporting
confidence: 87%