Development and validation of nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: a population-based study

Sun, Yuqi; Li, Zequn; Tian, Yuan; Gao, Chao; Liang, Benjia; Cao, Shougen; Liu, Xiaodong; Liu, Xuechao; Meng, C. I.; Xu, Jianhua; Yang, Hao; Zhou, Yanbing

doi:10.1186/s12876-023-02749-9

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Sun et al. ( 48 ) explored various factors affecting the survival of elderly patients with locally advanced GC. Statistical analysis showed that the T/N/M stages were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development and validation of nomogram models to predict radiotherapy or chemotherapy benefit in stage III/IV gastric adenocarcinoma with surgery

Ren,

Huang,

Tang

et al. 2023

Front. Oncol.

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ObjectivesThe advanced gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC) patients (stage III/IV) with surgery may have inconsistent prognoses due to different demographic and clinicopathological factors. In this retrospective study, we developed clinical prediction models for estimating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in advanced GAC patients with surgeryMethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The total population from 2004 to 2015 was divided into four levels according to age, of which 179 were younger than 45 years old, 695 were 45-59 years old, 1064 were 60-74 years old, and 708 were older than 75 years old. There were 1,712 men and 934 women. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors for OS and CSS. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS. The models’ calibration and discrimination efficiency were validated. Discrimination and accuracy were evaluated using the consistency index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots; and clinical usefulness was assessed using decision curve analysis. Cross-validation was also conducted to evaluate the accuracy and stability of the models. Prognostic factors identified by Cox regression were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.ResultsA total of 2,646 patients were included in our OS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as prognostic factors for OS in advanced GAC patients with surgery (P < 0.05). A total of 2,369 patients were included in our CSS study. Age, primary site, differentiation grade, AJCC 6th_TNM stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and number of regional nodes examined were identified as risk factors for CSS in these patients (P < 0.05). These factors were used to construct the nomogram to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. The consistency index and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated that the models effectively differentiated between events and nonevents. The calibration plots for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS probability showed good consistence between the predicted and the actual events. The decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram had higher clinical predictive value and more significant net gain than AJCC 6th_TNM stage in predicting OS and CSS of advanced GAC patients with surgery. Cross-validation also revealed good accuracy and stability of the models.ConclusionThe developed predictive models provided available prognostic estimates for advanced GAC patients with surgery. Our findings suggested that both OS and CSS can benefit from chemotherapy or radiotherapy in these patients.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Zhong et al (47) found that TNM staging and radical surgery were independent prognostic factors affecting OS in young GC patients. Sun et al (48) explored various factors affecting the survival of elderly patients with locally advanced GC. Statistical analysis showed that the T/N/M stages were independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and validation of nomogram models to predict radiotherapy or chemotherapy benefit in stage III/IV gastric adenocarcinoma with surgery

Ren,

Huang,

Tang

et al. 2023

Front. Oncol.

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A Prognostic Model Based on the Log Odds Ratio of Positive Lymph Nodes Predicts Prognosis of Patients with Rectal Cancer

Li,

Yang,

et al. 2024

J Gastrointest Canc

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Objective This study aimed to compare the prognostic value of rectal cancer by comparing different lymph node staging systems, and a nomogram was constructed based on superior lymph node staging. Methods Overall, 8700 patients with rectal cancer was obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2015. The area under the curve (AUC), the C index, and the Akaike informativeness criteria (AIC) were used to examine the predict ability of various lymph node staging methods. Prognostic indicators were assessed using univariate and multivariate COX regression, and further correlation nomograms were created after the data were randomly split into training and validation cohorts. To evaluate the effectiveness of the model, the C index, calibration curves, decision curves (DCA), and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used. We ran Kaplan-Meier survival analyses to look for variations in risk classification. Results While compared to the N-stage positive lymph node ratio (LNR), the log odds ratio of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) had the highest predictive effectiveness. Multifactorial COX regression analyses were used to create nomograms for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The C indices of OS and CSS for this model were considerably higher than those for TNM staging in the training cohort. The created nomograms demonstrated good efficacy based on ROC, rectification, and decision curves. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed notable variations in patient survival across various patient strata. Conclusions Compared to AJCC staging, the LODDS-based nomograms have a more accurate predictive effectiveness in predicting OS and CSS in patients with rectal cancer.

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Short- and long-term outcomes following perioperative ERAS management in patients undergoing minimally invasive radical gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy: A single-center retrospective propensity score matching study

Liu,

Cao,

Liu

et al. 2025

European Journal of Surgical Oncology

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Development and validation of nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: a population-based study

Cited by 7 publications

References 40 publications

Development and validation of nomogram models to predict radiotherapy or chemotherapy benefit in stage III/IV gastric adenocarcinoma with surgery

Development and validation of nomogram models to predict radiotherapy or chemotherapy benefit in stage III/IV gastric adenocarcinoma with surgery

A Prognostic Model Based on the Log Odds Ratio of Positive Lymph Nodes Predicts Prognosis of Patients with Rectal Cancer

Short- and long-term outcomes following perioperative ERAS management in patients undergoing minimally invasive radical gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy: A single-center retrospective propensity score matching study

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