Development and validation of novel interpretable survival prediction models based on drug exposures for severe heart failure during vulnerable period

Abstract

Background Severe heart failure (HF) has a higher mortality during vulnerable period while targeted predictive tools, especially based on drug exposures, to accurately assess its prognoses remain largely unexplored. Therefore, this study aimed to utilize drug information as the main predictor to develop and validate survival models for severe HF patients during this period. Methods We extracted severe HF patients from the MIMIC-IV database (as training and internal validation cohorts) as well as from the MIMIC-III database and local hospital (as external validation cohorts). Three algorithms, including Cox proportional hazards model (CoxPH), random survival forest (RSF), and deep learning survival prediction (DeepSurv), were applied to incorporate the parameters (partial hospitalization information and exposure durations of drugs) for constructing survival prediction models. The model performance was assessed mainly using area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), brier score (BS), and decision curve analysis (DCA). The model interpretability was determined by the permutation importance and Shapley additive explanations values. Results A total of 11,590 patients were included in this study. Among the 3 models, the CoxPH model ultimately included 10 variables, while RSF and DeepSurv models incorporated 24 variables, respectively. All of the 3 models achieved respectable performance metrics while the DeepSurv model exhibited the highest AUC values and relatively lower BS among these models. The DCA also verified that the DeepSurv model had the best clinical practicality. Conclusions The survival prediction tools established in this study can be applied to severe HF patients during vulnerable period by mainly inputting drug treatment duration, thus contributing to optimal clinical decisions prospectively. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-024-05544-6.