Development and validation of prognostic nomograms for adult patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma (PRCC): A Retrospective Study

Abstract

Objective Creating two consensus nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in adult patients with papillary renal cell carcinoma was the aim of this study (pRCC). Method Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, a retrospective analysis of 1074 adult patients with pRCC from 2004 to 2015 was performed. These patients were then randomly divided into two independent cohorts with a ratio of 7:3 (training cohort: 752, validation cohort: 322). In a retrospective analysis of 752 patients from the training cohort, independent prognostic variables affecting OS and CSS were found. R software was used to create prognostic nomograms based on the findings of Cox regression analysis. The performance of the nomograms was assessed using the C-index, AUC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves. Data from the 107 postoperative pRCC patients at the Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University were used to externally validate the nomogram. Results For OS and CSS, the C-indices and AUCs of the training cohort and the validation cohort indicated that the model had excellent discrimination. The DCA curves demonstrate that the model is clinically applicable. The calibration curves in internal and external validation showed that the model's accuracy was high. Conclusion In the current study, we developed and validated a prognostic nomogram that accurately predicts the 3-, 5-, and 8-year OS and CSS of adult patients with pRCC. Clinicians can use this knowledge to direct the clinical management and counseling of patients with pRCC.