Development of a Probabilistic Liquefaction Potential Map for Metro Manila

Abstract

ABSTRACT:The study aimed to create a probabilistic liquefaction potential map for Metro Manila to help prepare for future calamities. A liquefaction opportunity map was produced by computing the probability of an earthquake with a moment magnitude of at least 5.2 from occurring. Historical data were gathered from 7 surrounding active faults within a 150 km radius of Metro Manila to determine their recurrence. A liquefaction susceptibility map was also developed by taking into consideration the conditions of the soil. Approximately 1000+ borehole logs scattered across Metro Manila was used in developing this map. These two maps were then combined to create the probabilistic liquefaction potential map. The results show that there is only a 2% chance of an earthquake capable of triggering a liquefaction occurring in a given year but in 50 years, there is a 10% chance of exceedance coming from an earthquake with an acceleration of 0.7g. The earthquake is most likely to come from the Valley Fault System which runs straight through Metro Manila.