Development of adaptive combined models for predicting time series based on similarity identification

Kuchansky, Alexander; Biloshchytskyi, Andrii; Andrashko, Yurii; Biloshchytska, Svitlana; Shabala, Yevheniia; Myronov, Oleksii

doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2018.121620

Cited by 29 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…In addition, the 3D BIM model will provide a more realistic visualization of the design at all stages of the project. BIM 4D network graphics are a powerful tool for phasing, coordinating and transmitting information about the planned work to project participants [22]. Since all materials and components are determined and calculated automatically, it is possible to order them via electronic form and deliver to the construction site as needed, which reduces costs and increases productivity.…”

Section: Proposed Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining Components of the Methodological Platform for the Transformation of the Management System of Construction Companies in the Context of Digitalization

Ryzhakova

Kishchak

Mіronov

et al. 2021

MDCS

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The lack of clear and accessible information sources, services, platforms, applications or portals on digital business transformation slows down the speed of innovation in domestic entrepreneurship. In turn, this does not allow businesses to integrate with global trends, which complicates access and work in the international economic arena. The identified problems necessitate the development of a methodological approach to the study of digital transformation processes at the enterprise level; polystructural methodological approach to determining the index of digital transformation of business structures on the basis of relevant indicators; design and implementation of a digital platform for small and medium-sized businesses, which would automatically determine the Digital Transformation Index and provide an individual "road map" to improve the digital development of the enterprise. The article presents recent innovative technology for modeling business processes of enterprises based on process management. The paper considers the creation and justification of the updated methodological and analytical tools for assessing, selecting and regulating the production system of administration of an enterprise project portfolio in a single operating management system. The application of the process approach is based on a comprehensive, systematic review of the enterprise as a set of processes, the development of a process management system using the principles of ISO 9000: 2000. The new process approach is proposed that allows excluding routine operations from the actions of employees, increasing the speed of employee interaction, effectively optimizing existing business processes, and quickly rebuilding the enterprise’s business processes in response to significant changes in business conditions. The work identifies executable business processes, proposes a new approach to modeling the business processes of an enterprise, gives examples of problems associated with the new approach, and suggests possible ways to solve them. Criteria for the results of simulated business processes are defined that allow linking the target indicators of a balanced scorecard of the enterprise with the established results of business processes. It is proved that the use of this recent innovative technology for solving scientific and practical problems of enterprise management significantly expands and deepens the possibilities of economic analysis in the process of solving problematic situations and makes management decisions more grounded and effective.

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Section: Proposed Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Defining Components of the Methodological Platform for the Transformation of the Management System of Construction Companies in the Context of Digitalization

Ryzhakova

Kishchak

Mіronov

et al. 2021

MDCS

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“…For such time series, a common trend is the creation of hybrid and selective combined models of various types. In work [6], adaptive combined models are proposed, taking into consideration the similarity of time series, and their frequency is taken into consideration at the level of models in the software set. However, for the time series of air quality indices, it is important to understand the moments of changes in trends in improving or worsening air quality.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building a model for choosing a strategy for reducing air pollution based on data predictive analysis

Biloshchytskyi¹,

Kuchansky

Andrashko

et al. 2022

EEJET

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This paper formalizes the model of choosing a strategy for reducing air pollution in an urban environment. The model involves determining the optimal location of biotechnological systems – biotechnological filter systems or smart air purification devices based on solving the problem of discrete optimization, taking into consideration the forecast of the air quality index. Two subtasks have been formalized, which make it possible to form a strategy for reducing air pollution. To solve one of the subtasks, a combined selective model for predicting the time series of the Air Quality Index (CSM) was built. The combined model software suite consists of the EMD-ESM hybrid model (Empirical Mode Decomposition-Exponential Smoothing Model), the HWM additive model (Holt-Winters Model), and the adaptive TLM (Trigg-Lich Model). To verify the proposed combined selective model, the time series of air quality indices (AQI) for the city of Nur-Sultan (data from 2010‒2021, period 6 hours) were selected. As a result of verification, it was established that in the case of short-term forecasting of the air quality index time series, the EMD-ESM model has an advantage according to the criterion of a minimum root mean square error (RMSE), δ=0.11. For the case of medium-term forecasting of 3<τ≤5, the combined selective model (CSM) has the advantage. The results reported here are input data for the task of choosing strategies for reducing the volume of air pollution in the urban environment. The study’s results make it possible to increase the flexibility of the formation of strategies for reducing air pollution since they avoid restrictions on the location of cleaners in specific urban areas. The consequence is the improvement of the environmental situation in the city and the development of the region in general

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“…In [14] the method to estimate subjects of scientific areas on the basis of calculating the generalized volume of m-simplex was described. The use of this method implies the presence of a significant amount of data on the activities of subjects or objects of a scientific area; in particular, these data can change dynamically and are usually presented in the form of time series [15]. Also, defining the boundaries of scientific subject spaces is a key step in planning and evaluating the results of a subject's research activity.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of probabilistic latent semantic analysis to identify scientific subject spaces and to evaluate the completeness of covering the results of dissertation studies

Lizunov¹,

Biloshchytskyi²,

Kuchansky³

et al. 2020

EEJET

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The study considers the possibilities of using latent semantic analysis for the tasks of identifying scientific subject spaces and evaluating the completeness of covering the results of dissertation research by science degree seekers. A probabilistic thematic model was built to make it possible to cluster the publications of scholars in scientific areas, taking into account the citation network, which was an important step for solving the problem of identifying scientific subject spaces. As a result of constructing the model, the problem of increasing instability of clustering the citation graph in connection with a decrease in the number of clusters was solved. This problem would arise when combining clusters built on the basis of citation graph clustering, taking into account the similarity of abstracts of scientific publications. In the article, the presentation of text documents is described based on a probabilistic thematic model using n-grams. A probabilistic thematic model was built for the task of determining the completeness of covering the materials of an author's dissertation research in scientific publications. The approximate values of the threshold coefficients were calculated to evaluate whether the articles of an author included the research provisions that were reflected in the text of the author's abstract of the dissertation. The probabilistic thematic model for an author's publications was practised on the basis of the BigARTM tool. Using the constructed model and with the help of a special regularizer, a matrix was found to evaluate the relevance of topics specified by the segments of an author's dissertation abstracts to documents that are produced by the author's publications. Important aspects of the possibilities of using latent semantic analysis were studied to identify tasks of scientific subject spaces and to reveal the completeness of covering the results of dissertation research science degree seekers

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Development of adaptive combined models for predicting time series based on similarity identification

Cited by 29 publications

References 21 publications

Defining Components of the Methodological Platform for the Transformation of the Management System of Construction Companies in the Context of Digitalization

Defining Components of the Methodological Platform for the Transformation of the Management System of Construction Companies in the Context of Digitalization

Building a model for choosing a strategy for reducing air pollution based on data predictive analysis

The use of probabilistic latent semantic analysis to identify scientific subject spaces and to evaluate the completeness of covering the results of dissertation studies

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