Development of an analytical probabilistic model to estimate runoff event volumes in South Korea

Lee, Moon Young; An, Heejin; Jeon, Seol; Kim, Siyeon; Jung, Kwang-Mo; Park, Daeryong

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128129

Cited by 11 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 38 publications

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“…In Korea, research using EP has primarily focused on COVID-19 or environmental fields. 46 47 48 More detailed geographic and result presentations could be made by providing an EP map explaining excess probability and presenting estimated risks of OHCA occurrences and survival outcomes, thus enabling a clearer prioritization of public health interventions within a limited environment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Survival Outcomes in Korea (2009–2021)

Lee,

Jung,

et al. 2024

J Korean Med Sci

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Background Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is a major public health concern in Korea. Identifying spatiotemporal patterns of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and survival outcomes is crucial for effective resource allocation and targeted interventions. Thus, this study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal epidemiology of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Korea, with a focus on identifying high-risk areas and populations and examining factors associated with prehospital outcomes. Methods We conducted this population-based observational study using data from the Korean out-of-hospital cardiac arrest registry from January 2009 to December 2021. Using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, we calculated the standardized incidence ratio and assessed the relative risk to compare the spatial and temporal distributions over time. The primary outcome was out-of-hospital cardiac arrest incidence, and the secondary outcomes included prehospital return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital admission and discharge, and good neurological outcomes. Results Although the number of cases increased over time, the spatiotemporal analysis exhibited a discernible temporal pattern in the standardized incidence ratio of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with a gradual decline over time (1.07; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.04–1.09 in 2009 vs. 1.00; 95% CrI, 0.98–1.03 in 2021). The district-specific risk ratios of survival outcomes were more favorable in the metropolitan and major metropolitan areas. In particular, the neurological outcomes were significantly improved from relative risk 0.35 (0.31–0.39) in 2009 to 1.75 (1.65–1.86) in 2021. Conclusion This study emphasized the significance of small-area analyses in identifying high-risk regions and populations using spatiotemporal analyses. These findings have implications for public health planning efforts to alleviate the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Korea.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%