Development of an integrated prediction-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of water and energy nexus systems

Cai, Yanpeng; Cai, Jianying; Chen, Dongni; Xie, Yulei; Feng, Jing-Chun

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146744

Cited by 21 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…As an important connection tool, copula has the following two prominent advantages. First, it can completely describe the correlation structure between random variables with arbitrary marginal distributions by analyzing their joint probability distributions (Cai et al, 2021;Hao and Singh, 2016;Wang et al, 2017). Second, unlike other multivariate parametric distribution models, copula-based methods allow us to separate the univariate margins from the dependence structure for Frontiers in Earth Science frontiersin.org the construction of joint probability distributions with the characteristics of flexibility and diversity (Czado and Nagler, 2022;Hao and Singh, 2016).…”

Section: Treatment Of Interrelationship Between Hydrological Variable...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A new method for estimating multi-source water supply considering joint probability distributions under uncertainty

Wei

Wang²,

Jiang³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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A new method integrating techniques of copula and interval estimation to estimate multi-source water supply was proposed. Using the copula theory, joint probability distributions of multiple water sources were constructed for the estimation of water supply. In addition, the interval estimation was used to obtain the interval of water supply under uncertainty for the formulation of water-diversion strategies and the efficient allocation of water resources. This method can give an in-depth investigation on correlations and synchronous–asynchronous characteristics of runoff variations for multiple water sources, thus solving the uncertainty problem of water supply. To demonstrate its applicability, the method was applied to a case study in the Xiong’an New Area, a future metropolis in North China. The results showed that log-normal distributions for the marginal distributions of source 2 (i.e., the Water Diversion Project from the Yellow River to Baiyangdian Lake) and source 3 (i.e., the South-to-North Water Diversion Project) were feasible. The combined channel source, composed of source 2 and source 3, provided [5.20, 12.10] × 108 m3, and reservoir source provided [0.76, 3.60] × 108 m³ of water resources to the Xiong’an New Area per year. Furthermore, without the implementation of multi-source combined water supply pattern in the Xiong’an New Area, there would be a large water supply deficit. This research can provide effective practical suggestions and guidance on water-resource planning and management.

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Section: Treatment Of Interrelationship Between Hydrological Variable...mentioning

confidence: 99%

A new method for estimating multi-source water supply considering joint probability distributions under uncertainty

Wei

Wang²,

Jiang³

et al. 2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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“…The analysis of the water‐energy‐environment nexus of Jajrood River in Iran is proposed in Reference 38, using water evaluation and planning and long range energy alternative planning software. Related researches are: an integrated prediction‐optimization approach to manage coupled risks of W‐EN, 39 environmental assessment of food and beverage under a water‐energy‐climate nexus, 40 impacts of anaerobic digestion on the WEFN, 41 W‐EN of a Chinese steel company, 42 and a literature review in Reference 29.…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new methodology to estimate future water‐energy nexus based on artificial neural networks

Carvalho

Carneiro

2021

Int J Energy Res

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Summary We propose a new methodology to evaluate future electricity generation scenarios aiming to explore implications of different sets of power plants on the water‐energy nexus (W‐EN). We use two artificial neural networks: cascade forward back propagation and Kohonen neural networks (KNN). Initially, the future electricity production of the area under investigation is determined. Sequentially, water consumption is calculated for different combinations of plants. The scenarios with the lowest annual water consumption values are based only on wind and photovoltaic (PV) plants. Despite using only renewable energy, the inclusion of concentrating solar power in a future scenario brings a significant increase in water consumption, challenging the sustainability of this matrix. A conservative scenario (50% of electricity production by thermal power plants and 50% by renewable energy) shows the highest annual water consumption, also a barrier to sustainability.

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“…The previous research works mainly focused on two water‐centered subsystems (e.g., water‐food, water‐energy and water‐ecology) to effectively explore their relationships and further optimally allocate limited water resources to each user (Cai et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2021; Erfani et al., 2014a; Kahil et al., 2018; Khalkhali et al., 2021; Liu et al., 2023; Solovey et al., 2023). However, most previous studies neglected the inter‐relationship among more complex water‐centered nexus (e.g., three subsystems).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collaborative Management of Water‐Energy‐Food‐Ecosystems Nexus in Central Asia Under Uncertainty

Ma,

Li,

Huang

et al. 2024

Water Resources Research

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Collaborative management of the water‐energy‐food‐ecosystems (WEFE) nexus can contribute significantly to sustainable development. However, multiple decision‐making levels with diverse preferences and multiple uncertainties in different forms pose intractable challenges to the management process. In this study, a novel optimization method named as multi‐level chance‐constrained fuzzy programming (MCFP) is developed to jointly manage the WEFE nexus. MCFP has advantages in evaluating trade‐offs among multiple competitive decision makers, solving decentralized planning problems with hierarchical structure, and tackling uncertainties expressed as randomness and vagueness. MCFP is then applied to the WEFE nexus in Central Asia, where five countries, 43 states, six water sources, and eight water users are involved over a long‐term planning horizon (2021–2050). A set of scenarios are designed to reflect decision‐making preferences based on different irrigation efficiencies, food, ecological and electricity demands as well as constraint‐violation probability and system credibility levels. The major findings are: (a) the proportion of agricultural water allocation would reduce to 45.4%–56.6% by 2050 to save more water for ensuring ecological restoration and energy supply; and (b) in order to balance water demands and support regional sustainable development, policymakers should sacrifice some of the benefits, set strict arable land limits for cereal crops, improve irrigation efficiency through adopting drip and sprinkler irrigation, and avoid the effects of the irrigation efficiency paradox. The findings are helpful for policymakers in gaining insight into the interrelationships of water, energy, food and ecosystems as well as making decisions for collaborative management of the WEFE nexus system.

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Development of an integrated prediction-optimization modeling approach for coupled risk management of water and energy nexus systems

Cited by 21 publications

References 32 publications

A new method for estimating multi-source water supply considering joint probability distributions under uncertainty

A new method for estimating multi-source water supply considering joint probability distributions under uncertainty

A new methodology to estimate future water‐energy nexus based on artificial neural networks

Collaborative Management of Water‐Energy‐Food‐Ecosystems Nexus in Central Asia Under Uncertainty

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