Development of the survivability indicators forecasting method of the special-purpose system executive element based on analytical and stochastic simulation of a conflict situation

Abstract

The developed method for forecasting the survivability indicators of the executive element of a special-purpose system based on analytical-stochastic simulation of a conflict situation is presented. The purpose of the method was to solve the problem of preserving and rational use of the resource of the executive elements to achieve the desired effect of the functioning of special-purpose systems. The method is sensitive to the description of the patterns of changes in the survivability and efficiency indicators of the system. It is supposed to compare the predicted value of the survivability indicator with its criterion value and forecast the time when the system loses the ability to effectively perform tasks. The survivability indicator is the mathematical expectation of the number of executive elements of a special-purpose system, which retained their ability to perform tasks as intended during a conflict situation. Based on the results of the study, the values of the time characteristics of a conflict situation were obtained, in particular, the duration of the corresponding states of the executive element: preparation, waiting, implementation. Graph-analytical simulation provides a solution to the problem of forecasting the time when the loss of executive elements leads to the system’s inability to effectively perform tasks. Checking of the adequacy of the method showed that the confidence interval of the discrepancy between the calculation results of other methods with a confidence level of 0.9 does not exceed 0.095, and no contradictions between the methods were found. The proposed method provides an increase in the efficiency of determining the corresponding indicators within 8–11 % and reliability by 22 %. The possibility to determine the required reserve and the time for introducing executive elements into the system can provide a justification for how they are used to maintain the required level of efficiency of a special-purpose system.

Improving a method for determining the maneuvering intensity of the executive element of a special-purpose system

“…Paper [2] describes a scientific approach to predicting the survivability of executive elements in conflict events. Their consequences are assessed on the basis of the description of the dynamics of changes in the performance indicators of the implementation of EE tasks during the fight, taking into consideration the stochastic characteristics of the success of the maneuver.…”

“…Creating an aggressive environment against the enemy is a prerequisite for the success of the modern conflict, a characteristic feature of which is its transience and high reactivity. A party to the conflict, which is not able to adapt to changes in the situation and create more favorable conditions compared to the enemy, is doomed to defeat [1][2][3][4].…”

“…One of the signs of adaptability is maneuverability, which is essentially a characteristic of the ability of the elements of the opposing parties to occupy a favorable position in space for destructive influence on the enemy [2].…”

“…At the same time, the duration of maneuvering, as part of a conflict event, reduces the time to reproduce the destruc-tive effect on the enemy, which is risky in terms of the loss of the initiative and, as a result, the failure to perform the tasks of the opposition [1,2].…”

“…However, prolonged stay in position (frontier) increases the risk of loss of ability to fail [2]. Thus, a contradiction arises in the practice of conflict events, resolving which is possible by determining such maneuvering techniques at which the balance of effectiveness and survivability of the executive elements of a special-purpose system in conflict will be preserved.…”