Development of Zone Forecast probability Models for Oil and Gas Potential in the Central Part of the Permian Uplift by Structural and Capacity Criteria

Abstract

The task to which this article is devoted has not received due attention in recent years, since the preparation of structures for deep drilling is carried out using seismic exploration. At the same time, there is a huge array of data on structured drilling, unfortunately, it has not been fully used. Thus, the goal of the study is to use data on structured drilling to solve not only structural problems for marking surfaces, but also more complex ones related to zonal oil and gas potential of territories. The forecast of oil and gas content for marking and oil and gas horizons was carried out in three zones of oil and gas geological zoning. Using the data on these territories, studies were carried out to build probabilistic models for the zonal forecast of oil and gas content. To substantiate the joint use of data on marking surfaces and data on the tops of oil-bearing horizons, materials were studied for 447 deep wells. Probabilistic models of zonal forecast of oil and gas content of the central part of the Permian uplift were developed according to structural and capacity criteria. The complex use of data on the absolute marks of deep and structured wells made it possible to rank the territory of the central part of the Permian uplift by the degree of zonal oil and gas content. Severokamskoye (0.73), Krasnokamskoye (0.67), Baklanovskoye (0.67), Polaznenskoye (0.67), Rassvetnoye (0.64) and Mezhevskoye (0.63) fields were characterized by the maximum values of P COM. For the Kozubaevskoye field, the P COM was 0.57. The Gorskoye, Lobanovskoye, Talitskoye, Zorinskoye and Shemetinskoye fields were characterized by minimum values of P COM, varying in the range of 0.51–0.53. This scheme can be used when designing prospecting and exploration works in this area.