Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Power Industry in Guangxi

Abstract

This paper uses the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning(leap) system model to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the power industry and calculate the carbon peak platform period of the power industry in Guangxi, which is based on the development status of the power industry and the energy and power development plan in Guangxi during the "14th Five-Year Plan". The results show that the power structure of Guangxi is at an excellent level in the country. In 2021, the installed proportion of clean energy is 55.1% (the national average level of 44.7% in 2020), and the proportion of thermal power generation is 55.7% (the national average level of 68.5% in 2020). With the strong economic recovery , the demand for electricity in Guangxi will continue to increase. By 2025 and 2030, the electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 2.9 ×1012 kW•h and 3.7×1012 kW•h, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of about 7.1% and 5.3%. The installed power generation capacity will reach 9.4 ×107 kW and 1.5 ×108 kW, respectively. The power generation will reach 3.0 ×1012 kW•h and 4.2×1012 kW•h electricity, respectively. However, Due to the influence of resource endowment, meteorological conditions, energy storage technology and other constraints on non-fossil energy power generation, it is difficult to achieve large-scale replacement of traditional energy power generation in a short term. It is estimated that coal power production will account for 45% and 30% of the total power generation respectively in Guangxi by 2025 and 2030. Coal power will continue to be the main provider of power security for a long time in the future. Therefore, according to the current situation of power development planning, it is estimated that the carbon emission of Guangxi will reach 9.2×107 t by 2030. The carbon peak platform period of power generation industry will appear in 2029 to 2032, with a peak value of 1.1 × 108 t.