Development оf combined method for predicting the process of the occurrence of emergencies of natural character

Ivanets, Hryhorii; Horielyshev, Stanislav; Ivanets, Mykhailo; Baulin, Dmitro; Tolkunov, I.A.; Gleizer, N. V.; Nakonechnyi, A. A.

doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2018.143045

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Прогнозування НС різного характеру та наслідків внаслідок них здійснюється на основі аналізу статистичної інформації про НС в державі за деякий попередній період моніторингу. При прогнозуванні НС [6,7] розглядають:…”

Section: вступunclassified

Формалізована Математична Модель Прогнозування Надзвичайних Ситуацій Та Можливих Завданих Збитків Внаслідок Них

Ivanets¹,

Ivanets²,

Matukhno³

et al. 2020

CNCS

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Section: вступunclassified

Формалізована Математична Модель Прогнозування Надзвичайних Ситуацій Та Можливих Завданих Збитків Внаслідок Них

Ivanets¹,

Ivanets²,

Matukhno³

et al. 2020

CNCS

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“…When predicting emergency situations [5,6], consider: -statistical information on man-made and natural sources of emergency situations; -possible options for the emergence and development of emergencies; -results of extrapolation of the identified trends; -expert assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In [6], a combined method for predicting the process of emergence of natural emergencies is proposed, which allows taking into account the tendencies of periodic changes in this process. However, the frequency of changes in the processes of emergencies is characteristic only for natural emergencies and is not typical for emergencies of a technogenic or social nature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

et al. 2021

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Emergency prevention is based on analysis, forecasting and early response to emergencies. A systematic approach to solving the problem of preventing emergencies envisages forecasting emergencies by type, level and possible losses caused as a their results both in the state as a whole and in its regions. To implement a systematic approach based on a formalized mathematical model, an organizational and technical method has been developed for predicting emergencies and possible losses caused as their results. The method is a combination of a variable order polynomial regression method, a weighted least squares method, and a probabilistic statistical method. This allows to compensate for the shortcomings of some at the expense of others, which will lead to an increase in forecasting accuracy. A control algorithm has been developed for the implementation of an organizational and technical method for predicting emergency situations and possible losses caused as their results. Its use involves the implementation of a number of interrelated procedures. At the first stage, the collection, processing and analysis of information on emergency situations in the country for a certain period of monitoring is carried out. This is the basis for predicting the processes of emergencies in general, in nature, level and types, as well as losses due to them both in the state and its regions. The information received is taken into account when forming a decision on the actions of civil protection units in order to adequately respond to emergency situations and eliminate their consequences. Based on the analysis of the effectiveness of the actions of the response units, the decisions on the elimination of emergency situations are adjusted. The developed method makes it possible to reasonably approach the planning and implementation of organizational and technical measures to prevent emergency situations, taking into account the potential threats to the territories and population of the country's regions

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“…Forecasting is the basis of ES prevention. Analysis of methods for forecasting the processes of ES occurrence was carried out in [7][8][9] and it was shown that they are united in the following main groups: extrapolational and interpolational methods; extrapolation by envelope curves; regression and correlation methods; statistical and probabilistic methods; ex pert methods; methods of logical modeling; construction of development scenarios methods.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In article [8], the perspectiveness of developing combined methods for forecasting the ES occurrence processes, which are a combination of different methods to compensate for the disadvantages of some with the help of others, are shown.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

System approach to forecasting and preparedness of response to emergency situations

Ivanets¹,

Horielyshev²,

Baulin³

et al. 2020

Nauk. visn. nat. hirn. univ.

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Development оf combined method for predicting the process of the occurrence of emergencies of natural character

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

Формалізована Математична Модель Прогнозування Надзвичайних Ситуацій Та Можливих Завданих Збитків Внаслідок Них

Формалізована Математична Модель Прогнозування Надзвичайних Ситуацій Та Можливих Завданих Збитків Внаслідок Них

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

System approach to forecasting and preparedness of response to emergency situations

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