Directions for Research on Climate and Conflict

Mach, Katharine J.; Adger, W. Neil; Buhaug, Halvard; Burke, Marshall; Fearon, James D.; Field, Christopher B.; Hendrix, Cullen S.; Kraan, Caroline M.; Maystadt, Jean-François; Ο’Loughlin, John; Roessler, Philip; Scheffran, Jürgen; Schultz, Kenneth A.; Uexküll, Nina von

doi:10.1029/2020ef001532

Cited by 46 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Yet, the seven historical research priorities presented above remain valid today, despite notable scientific progress over the past decade (cf. Mach et al, 2020). In conclusion, we would like to highlight three research gaps that we consider particularly pertinent.…”

Section: Ways Forward: Directions For the Next Generation Of Climate–conflict Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estimating how such simultaneous processes together shape conflict risk is vital to realistically assess security implications of climate change. Integration across disciplines, scenario work, and predictive approaches may help assessing such compound and cascading effects (Leonard et al, 2014; Mach et al, 2020).…”

Section: Ways Forward: Directions For the Next Generation Of Climate–conflict Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 2. The reviews included in this assessment are: Deligiannis, 2012; Scheffran et al, 2012a,b; Hsiang, Burke & Miguel, 2013; Klomp & Bulte, 2013; Meierding, 2013; Theisen, Gleditsch & Buhaug, 2013; Gemenne et al, 2014; Hsiang & Burke, 2014; Salehyan, 2014; Selby, 2014; Selby & Hoffmann, 2014; Zografos, Goulden & Kallis, 2014; Buhaug, 2015, 2016; Burke, Hsiang & Miguel, 2015; Gartzke & Böhmelt, 2015; Burrows & Kinney, 2016; Seter, 2016; Abrahams & Carr, 2017; Gilmore, 2017; Ide, 2017; Koubi, 2017, 2019; Sakaguchi, Varughese & Auld, 2017; Theisen, 2017; Adams et al, 2018; Busby, 2018; van Baalen & Mobjörk, 2018; Barnett, 2019; Mach et al, 2019, 2020; Pearson & Newman, 2019; Bernauer & Böhmelt, 2020; Vesco et al, 2020. These reviews were identified by consulting hits to a Google Scholar search for the terms ‘climate’, ‘conflict’, and ‘review’, published since 2011. …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress

Uexküll

Buhaug

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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142

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The study of security implications of climate change has developed rapidly from a nascent area of academic inquiry into an important and thriving research field that traverses epistemological and disciplinary boundaries. Here, we take stock of scientific progress by benchmarking the latest decade of empirical research against seven core research priorities collectively emphasized in 35 recent literature reviews. On the basis of this evaluation, we discuss key contributions of this special issue. Overall, we find that the research community has made important strides in specifying and evaluating plausible indirect causal pathways between climatic conditions and a wide set of conflict-related outcomes and the scope conditions that shape this relationship. Contributions to this special issue push the research frontier further along these lines. Jointly, they demonstrate significant climate impacts on social unrest in urban settings; they point to the complexity of the climate–migration–unrest link; they identify how agricultural production patterns shape conflict risk; they investigate understudied outcomes in relation to climate change, such as interstate claims and individual trust; and they discuss the relevance of this research for user groups across academia and beyond. We find that the long-term implications of gradual climate change and conflict potential of policy responses are important remaining research gaps that should guide future research.

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Section: Ways Forward: Directions For the Next Generation Of Climate–conflict Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ways Forward: Directions For the Next Generation Of Climate–conflict Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress

Uexküll

Buhaug

2021

Journal of Peace Research

Self Cite

142

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“…Linke et al, 2018; Koubi et al, 2018). Hence, our understanding of the precise mechanisms underlying the relationship between climate change, migration, and political violence remains limited (Mach et al, 2019, 2020), which hinders efforts to provide concrete policy recommendations regarding the security risks of environmental migration. In an effort to fill these gaps, we examine the effects of climate-induced rural-to-urban migration on social movements.…”

Section: Explaining Social Disorder In Light Of Environmental Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental migrants and social-movement participation

Koubi

Nguyễn

Spilker

et al. 2020

Journal of Peace Research

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The displacement of people due to climatic changes (environmental migration) presents major societal and governance challenges. This article examines whether and how climate-induced rural-to-urban migration contributes to social-movement participation. We argue that the mainly forceful nature of relocation makes environmental migrants more likely to join and participate in social movements that promote migrant rights in urban areas. Using original survey data from Kenya, we find that individuals who had experienced several different types of severe climatic events at their previous location are more likely to join and participate in social movements. This finding has important policy implications. National and local authorities should not only provide immediate assistance and basic social services to environmental migrants in urban settings, but also facilitate permanent solutions by fostering their socio-economic and political integration in order to prevent urban conflict.

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“…In addition, several dry cities are in areas with already fragile states. The links between the scarcity of natural resources and armed conflict are controversial,69 but some studies suggest that intrastate or interstate competition for resources such as water may be increasingly associated with armed conflict 70. Armed conflict, in turn, undermines the health of both combatants and civilians in many ways 7172…”

Section: Specific Health Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%