Discussing Total Electron Content over the Solar Wind Parameters

Abstract

Modeling and forecasting of Total Electron Content (TEC) values by an Artificial Neural Network model (ANNm) have high agreement on November 2003, 2004 superstorms. The work discusses Solar Wind Parameters (SWp) from OMNI (Operating Missions as a Node on the Internet) and TEC (TECU) data (International Reference Ionosphere) IRI-2012, IRI-2016 on November 20, 2003 (Dst = –422 nT) and on November 08, 2004 (Dst = –374 nT) Geomagnetic Storms (GSs). The paper commences with a 120-hour GS exhibition of SWp and proceeds with the correlation data of the variables, their hierarchical tracks, and inner dispersions. The ANNm with SWp as the input and TEC data as the output are introduced. The performance of the ANNm for 2003 and 2004 superstorms is adequate. The Correlation Coefficient (R) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the ANNm are 97.5%, 1.17 TECU (IRI-2012), and 97.9%, 1.09 TECU (IRI-2016) for the 2003 GS and 97.0%, 0.89 TECU (IRI-2012), and 98.0%, 1.61 TECU (IRI-2016) for 2004 GS. Parameters effect of the R constant of TEC data points out to the dynamic pressure (nPa), the magnetic field Bz component (nT), the flow speed (km/s), and the proton density (1/cm3). Besides, the absolute total error and the variance of the predicted TEC data for November 2003 and November 2004 GSs are 0.06 (0.30%) with 0.013 variance (IRI-2012), 0.09 (0.49%) with 0.016 variance (IRI-2016) for 2003 storm and 0.13 (0.73%) with 0.033 variance (IRI-2012), and 0.11 (1.06%) with 0.035 variance (IRI-2016) for 2004. It means that the paper models TEC data with considerable consistency over the SWp.

Bézier Cubics and Neural Network Agreement along a Moderate Geomagnetic Storm

“…It it needed to recall that the minus score shows an inverse correlation. Te binary relationship established in Table 1 is determined by equation (9).…”

“…Te solar wind is an electromagnetic stream of charged particles constantly emitted by the Sun, and it interacts with Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. A GS [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] are disturbances in the Earth's electromagnetism caused by changes in the solar wind, which have potentially signifcant impacts on the electromagnetic stability of the atmosphere [15,16]. Te GS commences with a coronal mass ejection (CME).…”

“…One of the most reliable tools (parameters) that allow the observation of the above-mentioned regular or irregular changes is the TEC map [2,9,14,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Te TEC is a measure of the whole amount of free electrons present in a cross-sectional feld of the Earth's ionosphere between a satellite and a receiver on the ground.…”

“…Tis essay models, estimates, and compares the TEC map (from the IRI-2012) of a moderate (Dst � −55 nT) GS period, dated February 2, 2015, with Bézier curves (BC) [31][32][33][34] and an artifcial neural network (NN). Te reason why the essay commences with the IRI [9,[35][36][37] TEC atlas is that it does not need interpolation. An illustration of the interpolated TEC atlas can be noticed in the validation subsection of the modeling part.…”

“…Te NN [9,11,14,23,[38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45] model is an instrument that imitates the human brain and converts inputs to outputs. Te data set sent to the input layer is processed in the hidden layer and presented to the output layer as expected products.…”