Dislocations in the Foreign Trade of the United States Resulting from the European War

Abstract

The outbreak of the European war in the summer of I914 found the United States in the midst of an industrial depression" which, as regards foreign trade, had manifested itself in a greatly reduced excess of merchandise exports over merchandise imports. Thus, for the six months beginning with January and ending with June, I9I4, the excess of exports of domestic merchandise was but 47 million dollars, as compared with 267 millions for the corresponding period in 19I3, and I96 millions for the corresponding period in I9I2.During the fifteen months that have elapsed since the beginning of the war,2 a marked reversal has taken place in the conditions of our foreign trade, with the result that our exports of domestic merchandise for that period have exceeded our imports of merchandise by approximately i,6oo million dollars.In view of this remarkable change in the volume of our foreign trade, it is deemed appropriate at this time to set forth the facts involved in this change, and to ascertain, if possible, what effect the war has had upon that trade. Analysis should reveal certain fundamental aspects of the problem. First, is this huge excess of exports due to an increase in the exports or to a decrease in the imports, and when did the increase or decrease begin to manifest itself ? Again, what changes have occurred in the volume of our trade with the belligerent nations or with nations contiguous to them? What commodities appear to have been most affected by the war ? What commodities have moved in increased or decreased proportions to and from what countries? And, since the imports and exports of merchandise which have been cited do not include the imports and exports of gold, what has been the movement of gold between the United States and other countries ? Finally, it is well known that American foreign trade has depended largely