Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets versus Prediction Polls

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

“…Baron et al (2014) provide a theoretical justification and empirical evidence in favor of transforming aggregated probability predictions toward the extremes. Atanasov et al (2015) develop a method for aggregating probability estimates in prediction markets when probabilities are inferred from individual market orders and combined using statistical aggregation approaches. Tetlock et al (2014) discuss the role that tournaments can play in society by both increasing transparency and improving the quality of scientific and political debates by opening closed minds and holding partisans accountable to evidence and proof.…”

Detection of Validity-Related Faults in the Modern Electoral Studies

“…прогнозные рынки [Arrow et al, 2008;Atanasov et al, 2015] 5 , опросы об ожиданиях [Rothschild, Wolfers, 2011;Graefe, 2014], контент-анализ социальных сетей [Tumasjan et al, 2010], экономические модели [Tufte, 1978]. Существование всех этих методов, как и ожидаемое появление еще более новых, говорит о том, что конвенциональная модель прогнозирования в том виде, в каком она существует на данный момент, в полной мере не соответствует общественному запросу.…”

Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

“…across forecasters, and are independent of s as well. 3 One interpretation of the signals here would regard the shared signal s as equivalent to m independent observations of the random variable X, and each t i as equivalent to additional independent observations of X.…”

“…Since the probability of each team winning a particular game is unknown, I additionally examined the performance of the market probabilities κ r of team 1 winning in game r, calculated according to the decimal betting market odds on the night after participants provided their responses. 3 Specifically, I collected the decimal odds for bets on each team winning from the websites 5Dimes, Bovada, topbet, BetOnline, MyBookie.ag, BetDSI, BookMaker, GT Bets, SportBet, SportsBetting.com, and RealBet, when available. For each game, there are two decimal odds quoted-one for betting on the event that team 1 will win, and the other for betting on the event that team 2 will win.…”

“…These probability estimatesp k can then be interpolated to provide a piecewise linear approximation of the cumulative distribution function F pxq. 3…”