Distribution and invasion risk assessment of <i>Oryctes rhinoceros</i> (L.) in China under changing climate

Xu, Danping; Zhuo, Zhihang; Li, Xinyang; Wang, Rulin

doi:10.1111/jen.12989

Cited by 10 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The previous literature confirms that the extent of the distribution of C. viridis is associated with the extent of the plant distribution area affected, while that the scope of activity can be influenced by various factors, though this scope is limited to the habitat [47,48]. There are notable differences between various periods and climate change situations, which might be connected to variations in temperature and rainfall in various emission scenarios [16]. According to Figure 4, over time, the trend of highly suitable areas will gradually rise; the suitable area will expand to the south and continue to increase in areas such as Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hainan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…There have been numerous studies indicating that this model demonstrates superior performance in terms of predictive accuracy, especially when species distribution data are lacking. It is one of the most accurate approaches for estimating a species' probable geographic range, and it is more accurate than existing alternative models [16]. As a result of their quick running times, ease of operation, low sample demand, and stable outcomes [17,18], models of species distribution have been extensively used to forecast the spread of invasive species [19,20], the potential geographic distribution of endangered plants [13,21], changes in wild animal habitats [22], etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Zhuo

2023

Insects

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Cicadella viridis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) is an omnivorous leafhopper that feeds on plant sap. It significantly reduces the yield of agricultural and forestry crops while feeding or ovipositing on the host plant. In recent years, the rapid expansion of C. viridis has posed a serious threat to agricultural and forestry crops. To study the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of the leafhopper, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS software, combined with 253 geographic distribution records of the pest and 24 environmental variables, were used, for the first time, to predict the potential distribution of C. viridis in China under conditions of climatic change. The results showed that the currently suitable areas for C. viridis are 29.06–43° N, 65.25–85.15° E, and 93.45–128.85° E, with an estimated area of 11,231,423.79 km2, i.e., 11.66% of China. The Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the Shandong Peninsula are the main suitable areas. The potential distribution of the leafhopper for the high and medium suitability areas decreased under each climate scenario (except RCP8.5 in the 2090s). Several key variables that have the most significant effect on the distribution of C. viridis were identified, including the mean annual temperature (Bio1), the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (Bio4), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), and the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19). Our research provides important guidance for developing effective monitoring and pest control methods for C. viridis, given the predicted challenges of altered pest dynamics related to future climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Zhuo

2023

Insects

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“…In contrast, minimum temperature of coldest month, followed by precipitation of wettest month were reported by Hao et al 57 as the main drivers of the global distribution of O. rhinoceros based on BRT model. Xu et al 71 reported that the precipitation of the wettest month was the most important driver of the potential distribution of O. rhinoceros . The variation in the modeling results could be associated with the modeling technique, environmental variables and the number of O. rhinoceros distribution points.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining the potential distribution of Oryctes monoceros and Oryctes rhinoceros by combining machine-learning with high-dimensional multidisciplinary environmental variables

Aidoo¹,

Ding

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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The African coconut beetle Oryctes monoceros and Asiatic rhinoceros beetle O. rhinoceros have been associated with economic losses to plantations worldwide. Despite the amount of effort put in determining the potential geographic extent of these pests, their environmental suitability maps have not yet been well established. Using MaxEnt model, the potential distribution of the pests has been defined on a global scale. The results show that large areas of the globe, important for production of palms, are suitable for and potentially susceptible to these pests. The main determinants for O. monoceros distribution were; temperature annual range, followed by land cover, and precipitation seasonality. The major determinants for O. rhinoceros were; temperature annual range, followed by precipitation of wettest month, and elevation. The area under the curve values of 0.976 and 0.975, and True skill statistic values of 0.90 and 0.88, were obtained for O. monoceros and O. rhinoceros, respectively. The global simulated areas for O. rhinoceros (1279.00 × 104 km2) were more than that of O. monoceros (610.72 × 104 km2). Our findings inform decision-making and the development of quarantine measures against the two most important pests of palms.

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“…Rainfall plays a crucial role in the growth and reproduction of insects by affecting the humidity of their environment (Xu et al, 2022).…”

Section: Ta B L Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China

Liao,

Zhuo,

Qian

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Graphium sarpedon is a significant foliar pest of Laurel plants in China. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to investigate the distribution of G. sarpedon and predict its potential distribution areas in China in the future (2050s and 2090s) based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5), and key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the suitable distribution areas of G. sarpedon were 92.17°–134.96° E and 18.04°–33.61° N, including Yangtze Plain (Middle and Lower), Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Lingnan areas. Under the future climate conditions, the total suitable distribution area of G. sarpedon decreased, but the area of medium suitable area increased. The study identified 11 key environmental variables affecting the distribution of G. sarpedon, the most critical of which was Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) and precipitation in April, May, June, and September (prec4, prec5, prec6, and prec9). This study is beneficial for monitoring and preventing the possible changes of G. sarpedon and provides theoretical references for its prevention and control.

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Distribution and invasion risk assessment of Oryctes rhinoceros (L.) in China under changing climate

Abstract: Biological invasion is one of the greatest threats to agriculture, human health and the global economy. Palm crop is a precious large evergreen arbour mainly growing in tropical areas. Its main habitats are in provinces of Hainan,

Cited by 10 publications

References 35 publications

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Leafhopper, Cicadella viridis in China through the MaxEnt Model

Determining the potential distribution of Oryctes monoceros and Oryctes rhinoceros by combining machine-learning with high-dimensional multidisciplinary environmental variables

Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China

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