Diverging Patterns of Union Transition Among Cohabitors by Race/Ethnicity and Education: Trends and Marital Intentions in the United States

Abstract

The rise of cohabitation in family process among American young adults and declining rates of marriage among cohabitors are considered by some scholars as evidence for the importance of society-wide ideational shifts propelling recent changes in family. With data on two cohabiting cohorts from the NSFG 1995 and 2006–10, the current study finds that marriage rates among cohabitors have declined steeply among those with no college degree, resulting in growing educational disparities over time. Moreover, there are no differences in marital intentions by education (or race-ethnicity) among recent cohabitors. We discuss how findings of this study speak to the changes in the dynamics of social stratification system in the United States and suggest that institutional and material constraints are at least as important as ideational accounts in understanding family change and family behavior of contemporary young adults.

Transitions From Sexual Relationships Into Cohabitation and Beyond

“…Even after accounting for the tempo into shared living and duration since the start of the cohabitation, cohabiting women’s educational attainment is strongly associated with transitions into marriage. This finding is consistent with previous studies (Kuo and Raley 2016; Lichter et al 2006). …”

“…For the second stage of our analysis we limited our sample to the 2,831 women whose most recent sexual relationship involved a cohabiting union, and explored whether their unions transitioned into marriage (n = 1,158). Even though our ten-year time frame surpasses the five year duration utilized by others (Bumpass and Lu 2000; Hayford and Morgan 2008; Kuo and Raley 2016), these studies began their clock when respondents began cohabitating, rather than when the sexual relationship started. A five year window simply does not provide enough observations of transitions from sexual involvement into cohabitation and then to marriage.…”

“…We excluded 1,057 women who had been married previously, as retrospective recall bias is lower for first marriages (Bumpass and Lu 2000; Kuo and Raley 2016). Also excluded were 587 women who had not ever had sex prior to moving in with their partners, and another 225 women who were missing information on the date of move-in or who reported dates that resulted in a negative duration between the date of first sex with the most recent partner and the date of move-in.…”

Mismatches in the Marriage Market

“…Large but declining majorities of both single and cohabiting young women (and men) intend, expect, or plan to marry (Kuo & Raley, 2016;Manning, Longmore, & Giordano, 2007;Vespa, 2014). This implies that recent marriage trends and mate selection processes may simply result from shifting marital attitudes and preferences.…”

Family Change in Global Perspective: How and Why Family Systems Change

“…These broad theories of why and how family systems change have stimulated a sizeable body of national and regional studies on patterns of family change throughout the world (Allendorf & Pandian, 2016;Amador, 2016;Cuesta, Rios-Salas, & Meyer, 2017;Kumagai, 2010;Kuo & Raley, 2016;Seltzer, 2004;Seltzer et al, 2005;Thornton, Pierotti, Young-DeMarco, & Watkins, 2014;etc.). Yet, it is still fair to say that since the publication of Goode's (1963) book more than a half-century ago, there has been no systematic attempt to test in the broadest sense his theory of how change in family systems occurs or the competing explanations that have been advanced in response to his bold predictions using demographic data on a global scale.…”