Do Black Sea maize prices influence maize futures price discovery in Hungary? An analysis of the relationship between Hungarian and Black Sea maize prices

Potori, Norbert; Józsa, Mónika

doi:10.7896/j.1417

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Three contaminated sea ships were reported in the news items mentioned before, however, (Potori and Józsa, 2014), €20/t for maritime transport added (2) Prices for Nov 2012 -Jan 2013 (3) Prices for Aug and Dec 2012 (Agrimatie, 2012) Value maize intended for use as biogas (€/t) (Boerenbond, 2014) Percentage imported maize processed (%) 10,000t (batch 1) + 10,000t (batch 2), which is 22% (NVWA, 2014) (5) Percentage of total feed production used as dairy cattle feed (%)…”

Section: Rasff Notificationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Methodological advances to improve the cost-effectiveness of monitoring for mycotoxins in cereal grains

Focker¹

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Early 2013, high concentrations of aflatoxin M1 were found in the bulk milk of a few dairy farms in the Netherlands and Germany. These high concentrations were due to aflatoxin B1 contaminated maize from the Black Sea area that was processed into compound feed, which was fed to dairy cows. Since the contamination was discovered in the downstream stages of the supply chain, multiple countries and stakeholders were involved and recalls of the feed were necessary, which resulted into financial losses. The aim of this study was to estimate the financial losses related to the 2013 aflatoxin incident for three stakeholders, being the maize traders, the feed industry and the dairy sector, in the Netherlands, and its neighbouring countries Germany and Belgium. First, the sequence of events of the incident was retrieved. Data on the incident and financial losses were collected from literature, news items on the internet and in-depth interviews. A Monte Carlo simulation model was built to combine the scarce and uncertain data to estimate the financial losses for each stakeholder.The estimated total direct financial losses of this incident for all three countries and all three stakeholders was estimated to be in the range of tens of millions of euros. The largest share, about 70%, of the total losses were endured by the maize traders. These losses were due to imported maize exceeding the legal limit for aflatoxins which was not yet sold to the feed industry. About 30% of the total losses were for the feed industry. These losses were due to contaminated feed that was sold and delivered to dairy farms. Recalls and replacements of the contaminated feed were organised. Since the contamination was discovered before any dairy milk was sold to consumers, less than 1% of the total losses were for the dairy sector.

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Section: Rasff Notificationsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Methodological advances to improve the cost-effectiveness of monitoring for mycotoxins in cereal grains

Focker¹

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Financial losses for Dutch stakeholders during the 2013 aflatoxin incident in Maize in Europe

Focker

Fels‐Klerx

2021

Mycotoxin Res

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Early 2013, high concentrations of aflatoxin M1 were found in the bulk milk of a few dairy farms in the Netherlands. These high concentrations were caused by aflatoxin B1 contaminated maize from Eastern Europe that was processed into compound feed, which was fed to dairy cows. Since the contamination was discovered in the downstream stages of the supply chain, multiple countries and parties were involved and recalls of the feed were necessary, resulting into financial losses. The aim of this study was to estimate the direct short-term financial losses related to the 2013 aflatoxin incident for the maize traders, the feed industry, and the dairy sector in the Netherlands. First, the sequence of events of the incident was retrieved. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model was built to combine the scarce and uncertain data to estimate the direct financial losses for each stakeholder. The estimated total direct financial losses of this incident were estimated to be between 12 and 25 million euros. The largest share, about 60%, of the total losses was endured by the maize traders. About 39% of the total losses were for the feed industry, and less than 1% of the total losses were for the dairy sector. The financial losses estimated in this study should be interpreted cautiously due to limitations associated with the quality of the data used. Furthermore, this incident led to indirect long-term financial effects, identified but not estimated in this study.

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Time-Varying Integration of Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Market with the EU Market

Hamulczuk¹,

Makarchuk

Kuts

2021

AOL

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Ukraine (UA) is one of the world-leading countries in sunflower oil production and sunflower oil exports. Due to the increasing demand caused by biofuel regulations, the European Union (EU) remains the key importer of Ukrainian sunflower oil. Therefore, the aim of the proposed research is to provide an evaluation of the time-varying integration of the UA sunflower oil market with the EU market. To fulfill this goal, first, the trends in sunflower oil production and exports in Ukraine as well as trade regulations are presented. The market integration was assessed using the ARDL-ECM approach that was applied to weekly sunflower oil prices in the period from 2000 to 2020. The analytical study was supplemented with the Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) Granger causality test, the Bai-Perron multiple structural breakpoint test (B-P) as well as impulse response functions (IRF). This study and the obtained results for the whole sample confirm the presence of a long-run relationship between EU and UA prices. The EU prices are the Granger cause for UA prices, as it is shown in the T-Y test. The Bai-Perron test indicates the existence of multiple structural breaks that can be justified by the market condition and policy modifications. Both the long- and the short-run response of UA prices to changes in EU prices vary significantly in different sub-periods.

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Do Black Sea maize prices influence maize futures price discovery in Hungary? An analysis of the relationship between Hungarian and Black Sea maize prices

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Methodological advances to improve the cost-effectiveness of monitoring for mycotoxins in cereal grains

Methodological advances to improve the cost-effectiveness of monitoring for mycotoxins in cereal grains

Financial losses for Dutch stakeholders during the 2013 aflatoxin incident in Maize in Europe

Time-Varying Integration of Ukrainian Sunflower Oil Market with the EU Market

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