Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

How can areas of potential agreement be identified and endorsed by citizens in protracted conflicts? In an effort to answer this question, the article introduces a conjoint experiment across the ethnically and territorially split communities of Cyprus and tests a range of hypotheses about the structure of public opinion with respect to a future settlement. We test hypotheses on security and credible commitments, the legacy of past negotiations, as well as transitional justice mechanisms following United Nations plans to mediate the conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA) exists from a public opinion perspective. We specifically explore power-sharing in the context of security, provisions for the internally displaced, federal courts, and territorial readjustments and highlight their relative importance for public opinion interventions across conflict-ridden societies.

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“…2.See application of conjoint analysis in Colombia in Tellez (2019); also see García-Sánchez et al. in this special feature section).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment

Loizides

Psaltis

Morgan-Jones

et al. 2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

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Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment

Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment

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