Do current energy policies in Germany promote the use of biomass in areas where it is particularly beneficial to the system? Analysing short-and long-term energy scenarios.

Abstract

Policymakers need to drive the rapid expansion of renewable energy technologies, and additionally channel the limited national potential of biomass into areas where it can provide the greatest benefit to the energy system. But do current policy instruments promote the use of biomass in these areas? In this study, shortterm energy scenarios are generated using the BenOpt model while considering both current and alternative policy instruments. The results are compared with long-term, cost-optimal energy scenarios in regard to the use of biomass. The analysis reveals that e.g. the GHG-quota instrument does not promote the use of biofuels in the hard-to-electrify areas of the transport sector, where they should be cost-optimally allocated according to long-term energy scenarios. This might lead to counterproductive developments in the passenger road sector, but at the same time helps to ramp up biofuel capacities required in shipping and aviation in the long term. In contrast, alternative policy scenarios show that the sole instrument of a high CO2-price is more conducive to direct electrification and at the same time displaces more fossil fuels until 2030 than the GHG-quota alone. This instrument also promotes the optimal use of biogas plants in the power sector according to long-term cost-optimal developments. However, a high CO2- price alone is not sufficient in the heat sector, w here additional instruments are required to scale up renewable technologies and use biomass efficiently instead ofsimply covering the base load demand.