Do Larger Cities Experience Lower Crime Rates? A Scaling Analysis of 758 Cities in the U.S.

Abstract

Do larger cities still suffer from higher crime rates? The scaling relationship between the number of crimes and the population size for the maximum of 758 cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants in the United States from 1999 to 2014 was analyzed. For the total group of cities, the relationship is superlinear for both violent and property crimes. However, for the subgroups of the top 12, top 24, and top 50 largest cities, the relationship changes to sublinear for both violent and property crimes. Results from the panel data analysis are in support of these findings. Along with population size, income per capita and population density also influence the outcome of crime counts. Implications from these findings will be discussed.

Homicide Rates and the Multiple Dimensions of Urbanization: A Longitudinal, Cross-National Analysis

“…This is warranted because quantitative studies testing the relationship between urbanization and homicide show mixed results: several studies show a negative relationship between the proportion of the population residing in urban areas and homicide, contrary to criminological expectations discussed below, while others show a positive relationship [6,9]. Given the lengthy history of social science research on the relationship between urbanization and crime, herein we review, briefly, two competing frameworks on the topic: The first summarizes the traditional argument, still supported in cross-national research [6], that modern city life is criminogenic; the second draws on recent, local-level research on the non-monotonic results of urban scaling [4][5][6][7]. When taken together, these studies reaffirm that urbanization should be treated as a multidimensional concept, which in a cross-national study would involve capturing not only the overall urban proportion in the country but also an operational way to measure the presence of big cities in a country.…”

“…The second framework we reviewed draws from recent, local-level criminological work looking at urban-scale advantages [4,5,7], which is part of a broader quantitative literature that estimates the scaling relationships between city size and a variety of human behavioral and social science variables. Conceptually, the urban scaling literature provides insight into the agglomeration effects of urban growth, asking whether there are economies of scale in city size.…”

“…Meanwhile, in robust longitudinal studies, criminologists have recently applied urban scaling analysis to evaluate the potential for agglomeration effects in terms of homicide. For instance, using bivariate and multivariate longitudinal models in a study of US cities between 1999-2014, Chang et al [4] found that the rates of both violent and property crimes were lower in bigger than in smaller cities. This result was also seen in a study of Indian cities [7], suggesting that there is an urban scale advantage in terms of violent crimes.…”

“…Rather than measure urbanization as a single variable, we drew on sustainability scholarship that treats urbanization as a multidimensional concept with countervailing and non-monotonic consequences [2,3]. By synthesizing recent local-level and cross-national criminological research [4][5][6][7], we evaluated this multidimensional framework in a cross-national study of homicide rates. Regardless of the way missing values were handled, the results from our analysis highlighted urbanization variables, not other factors, such as age structure or economic productivity, as robust predictors of homicide rates.…”

“…Furthermore, following the approach in sustainability scholarship, we found evidence that urbanization is multidimensional with countervailing criminological consequences. Given our focus on urbanization and that cross-national sustainability scholars use similar data sets [3], we framed our study as part of an emerging literature drawing connections between crime and sustainability [4,8].…”