Do Local Perceptions of Climate Variability and Changes Correspond to Observed Climate Changes? A Comparative Study from Nepal as One of the Most Climate-Vulnerable Countries

Abstract

This study explored people’s perceptions of climate change by conducting interviews and focus group discussions with local residents of three ecological regions of Nepal, i.e., Mountain, Mid-hills and Low-land. Climatic measurements from meteorological stations of the regions were acquired for the period of 1988 to 2018. We compared the people’s perception with trends and variabilities of observed temperature and rainfall patterns. The results showed that over the last three decades, temperature and precipitation trends, and variability between regions varied largely corroborating with the local experiences. The temperature increased in Mountain, Mid-hills, and Low-land by 0.061° C yr−1, 0.063° C yr−1 and 0.017° C yr−1 respectively. On the contrary, rainfall reduced by −9.7 mm yr−1, −3.6 mm yr−1, and −0.04 mm yr−1 for the regions respectively. While the amount of rainfall decrease observed in the Mountain was highest, its variability was found relatively low; and vice-versa in Low-land. Approximately 88% interviewees perceived temperature rise, and 74% noticed rainfall decline. Local residents linked these changes with their livelihood activities and exemplified with, for example, crop’s quality and quantity; and birds’ migration. The results indicate that local understandings complement the scarce observational data and provides a reliable and additional foundations to determine changes in climatic variables. Moreover, the result infers that the small changes in climate variables have noticeable implications on human behavior change. Therefore, besides active participation of local communities, integrating local understanding is crucial in developing climate change related policies and strategies at local and national levels.

Spatial Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon in the Forests of Nepal

“…Secondly, our study argues that forests at higher altitudes have a higher potential for SOC retention. Although temperature decreases with an increase in altitude, recent studies show that the rate of temperature increase in Nepal is higher in higher altitudinal regions [92,93], which might have implications for the storage of SOC in forests at higher altitudes.…”

Remote sensing and geospatial approach: Optimizing groundwater exploration in semi-arid region, Nepal

“…The results of the 2021 national census reveal that more than 57 % of Nepalis rely on agriculture, forestry, or fishing for their livelihoods [ 11 ]. Nepal is one of the climatically vulnerable countries that has faced climate-induced problems such as an increase in temperature and uncertainty of rainfall [ 12 ]. Climate change casts an undeniable shadow over the drinking water sector, posing significant challenges [ 13 ].…”

Proactive Adaptation Responses by Vulnerable Communities to Climate Change Impacts

“…Because local communities and/or individuals often have close connections to nature, this builds an intuitive understanding of the changing climate over long periods of time [38]. They have long been attuned to environmental changes, allowing them to discern and respond to these shifts [39]. As a result, they have employed adaptations that are intricately tailored to their unique contexts.…”

“…Applied adaptation measures in the view of society's efficacy and compatibility with local priorities are of paramount importance in the adaptation process and local development. Consistent interactions of individuals with daily weather conditions thereby change their adaptive behavior, which not only offers cognizant measures to cope with locally experienced climate change impacts [39] but also enhances the practical application of climate change policies and strategies. However, as concluded by Darjee, Neupane and Köhl [39], and Darjee, et al [49], these practices and associated local knowledge have been hardly acknowledged in climate change policies and strategies.…”

“…Consistent interactions of individuals with daily weather conditions thereby change their adaptive behavior, which not only offers cognizant measures to cope with locally experienced climate change impacts [39] but also enhances the practical application of climate change policies and strategies. However, as concluded by Darjee, Neupane and Köhl [39], and Darjee, et al [49], these practices and associated local knowledge have been hardly acknowledged in climate change policies and strategies. This might have been underpinned by the lack of grounded findings from such studies related to self-initiated proactive and reactive actions as the survival mechanism employed by climate-affected communities.…”