Do Natural Disasters Reduce Loans to the More CO2-Emitting Sectors?

Abstract

We studied the impact of major floods occurring in Turkey between 2005 and 2020 on lending and the allocation of loans between sectors that differ in their CO2 emissions. Our evidence shows that the floods are not significant determinants of lending or the allocation of loans between sectors, even though CO2 emissions contribute to the reallocation of loans from the more polluting to the less polluting sectors. Indeed, risks and returns of the sector remain the main determinants of lending and of the allocation of loans among sectors. The results are robust to alternative estimation methods and specifications of the econometric models. Since in the period of investigation no environmental regulations were implemented in Turkey, and the Paris Agreement was ratified only at end-2021, the evidence suggests that more stringent regulations and green policies are required to accelerate the green transition in Turkey.