Do the Youngest Drivers Crash the Most?

Abstract

In a pragmatic sense, answering the question of whether the youngest drivers crash the most seems fairly straightforward. However, on more critical examination, with a focus on meaningful implications for crash and injury prevention and related policies, the question is not only a provocative one owing to the findings of the study conducted by Walshe et al, 1 but it is also steeped in greater complexity and paradox. Walshe et al set out to address this question by analyzing Ohio state licensing data from 136 643 young novice licensed drivers (age 16-24 years), followed up to 1 year after their licensure. The study found that novice licensed drivers aged 16 and 17 years outperformed their counterparts aged 18 to 24 years on license examinations. Furthermore, adolescents who were licensed to drive when younger than 18 years had significantly lower crash rates at both 2 and 12 months after licensure than those licensed at age 18 years.So, given the study findings, one might intuitively ask why the study question is provocative and a paradox. First, the findings directly challenge the historical literature and conventional thought that the youngest drivers have poorer driver safety performance measures and crash more than all other drivers. Established knowledge tells us that we should expect the youngest drivers to make more driving-related mistakes and therefore have more crashes. Based on nationally representative US data from 2014 to 2015, the crash rate per 100 million miles driven by individuals aged 16 to 17 years was nearly double that of drivers aged 18 to 19 years, with those aged 16 to 17 years having the highest crash involvement of all age groups. 2 Furthermore, based on what we now know about adolescent neurodevelopment, and framing this information within the context of young drivers, we not only consider inexperience (ie, limited driving exposure), but also look to neurodevelopmental immaturity that typically centers on key behavioral-related constructs, such as attention, working memory, and inhibitory control. Intimately tethered to decision-making and indispensable for young driver safety, limitations in these areas heighten crash risk. 3,4 Given the Walshe et al 1 findings that drivers licensed before age 18 years had significantly fewer crashes than those licensed at age 18 years (individuals aged 18 years had the highest crash rates of all licensed drivers younger than 25 years), another question arises related to the strength and confidence experts currently have when considering the role of adolescent neurodevelopment in driver crash risk and safety: are we looking at a paradigm shift in our understanding of what group of young drivers crashes the most? This issue could, in part, be the case, as more experience might mitigate and/or overcome neurodevelopmental vulnerability among some young drivers. Although recent evidence suggests that the outcomes associated with impulsive action can be mitigated by attitudes of safe driving and self-regulation among young and novice drivers, we will have t...