Does Election Day weather affect voter turnout? Evidence from Swedish elections

Fair Weather Voters: Do Canadians stay at home when the weather is bad?

“…6 To sum up, the majority of studies looking at the influence of rainfall on turnout find a small negative influence of precipitation on turnout. However, this finding is not conclusive and possibly conditional to certain conditions on the ground (see Fraga and Hersh 2010;Persson et al 2014). Many existing studies also have some inherent methodological weaknesses.…”

“…Fraga and Hersh (2010) observe similar results in US presidential elections, where precipitation only has an impact on turnout in uncompetitive elections. One of the few studies which finds no significant effect is Persson et al (2014), who evaluate the effect of rainfall on turnout using both individual-and aggregate-level data in Swedish parliamentary elections; regardless of the data they use, the authors find no significant and robust effect between the two variables. 4 There are also some, albeit few, studies, which discuss the type of individuals that might be enticed to stay at home due to rain.…”

Explaining the 2016 Vote for President Trump across U.S. Counties

“…Government-imposed barriers have been identified as another significant obstacle to voter participation that also increase the cost of participation (Nagler 1991). Although empirically less tested, inclement weather conditions have also been suggested to lower voter turnout (Gomez, Hansford, and Krause 2007;Persson, Sundell, and € Ohrvall 2014). To summarize, factors that contribute to general voter participation, and indirectly to voting outcomes, can be grouped into (a) socioeconomic factors including income levels and distribution, gender, race/ethnicity, and jobs by sector; (b) civic engagement (e.g., social capital); (c) type of electorate (e.g., swing county); (d) social policy such as welfare programs and insurance; (e) natural environment; and (f) state-level policy differences to capture barriers to and ease of election participation.…”

Fair weather voters: do Canadians stay at home when the weather is bad?

“…Fraga and Hersh (2010), observe similar results in US presidential elections, where precipitation only has an impact on turnout in uncompetitive elections. One of the few studies which finds no significant effect is Persson et al (2014), who evaluate the effect of rainfall on turnout using both individual-and aggregate-level data in Swedish parliamentary elections; regardless of the data they use, the authors find no significant and robust effect between the two variables. 5…”