Does polymixis complicate prediction of high‐frequency dissolved oxygen in lakes and reservoirs?

Abstract

As lake and reservoir ecosystems transition across major environmental regimes (e.g., mixing regime) resulting from anthropogenic change, setting predictive expectations is imperative. We tested the hypothesis that (dissolved) oxygen is more predictable in monomictic reservoirs that thermally stratify throughout the summer (warm) season compared to polymictic reservoirs that stratify intermittently. Using two‐hourly vertical profiles of oxygen, we compared daily‐aggregated errors of oxygen predictions from random forests across and within two monomictic and two polymictic reservoirs in the south‐central (subtropical) USA. Although one monomictic reservoir was typically more predictable than the polymictic reservoirs, the hypereutrophic, small monomictic reservoir had less predictable oxygen patterns potentially related to rapid oxygen cycling and intrusions of oxygenated waters in the hypolimnion without mixing. Daily mixing did not relate strongly to model errors. Water temperature, depth, and wind were the most important predictors, but were not clearly related to season or mixing. Lastly, we compared multiple model types (regression, neural network, and process‐based) in one polymictic reservoir to test how our interpretations of oxygen predictability were sensitive to model type, finding that the models generally agreed; however, the process‐based model poorly predicted oxygen in the middle of the vertical profiles (5 m) where most models performed poorly due to a temporally unstable, vacillating metalimnion. Our results suggest predicting reservoir oxygen dynamics may be easier in stratified reservoirs, but eutrophication and complex hydrodynamics may cause forecasting surprises especially for those who use or manage water resources in mono‐ or dimictic reservoirs.