Does the 2017 revision improve the ability of GOLD to predict risk of future moderate and severe exacerbation?

Erol, Serhat; Şen, Elif; Kilic, Yagmur; Yousif, A.; Yildiz, Öznur Akkoca; Acican, Turan; Saryal, Sevgi

doi:10.1111/crj.12914

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Moreover, this 1-year follow-up study also proposed that prospective annual experience of moderate-to-severe exacerbation was higher in the DB group than in the BB group [22] . Similarly, the retrospective study mentioned above showed that C1/D1 patients had a significantly higher risk of moderate and severe exacerbation in the next year compared to A/B patients according to GOLD 2011 [21] . The worse pulmonary function and more severe symptoms might be related to the poorer short-term prognosis in the DB group.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…[ 19 ] In a retrospective database analysis involving a national cross-sectional observational survey in China, some of the changes in demography and clinical characteristics of the new group A/B were associated with a high risk of exacerbation and/or mortality. [ 20 ] Erol et al [ 21 ] conducted a retrospective study recruiting 225 patients from COPD outpatient clinics and showed that the risk of future moderate and severe exacerbations was higher in 2017 GOLD groups A and B than in 2011 GOLD groups A and B. These results seem to suggest that GOLD 2017, with down staging of patients, may undervalue the severity and exacerbation risk of patients reclassified to group B, resulting in inadequate treatment.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[ 22 ] Similarly, the retrospective study mentioned above showed that C1/D1 patients had a significantly higher risk of moderate and severe exacerbation in the next year compared to A/B patients according to GOLD 2011. [ 21 ] The worse pulmonary function and more severe symptoms might be related to the poorer short-term prognosis in the DB group.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Does the 2017 global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease revision really improve the assessment of Chinese chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients? A multicenter prospective study for more than 5 years

Cui

Dai

Long

et al. 2023

Chinese Medical Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background:The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2017 proposed a new classification that reclassified many chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients from group D to B. However, there is a paucity of data related to the comparison between reclassified and non-reclassified COPD patients in terms of long-term prognosis. This study aimed to investigate long-term outcomes of them and determine whether the GOLD 2017 revision improved the assessment of COPD patients.Methods:This observational, multicenter, prospective study recruited outpatients at 12 tertiary hospitals in China from November 2016 to February 2018 and followed them up until February 2022. All enrolled patients were classified into groups A to D based on GOLD 2017, and the subjects in group B included patients reclassified from group D to B (group DB) and those remaining in group B (group BB). Incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for the exacerbation of COPD and hospitalization in each group.Results:We included and followed up 845 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the GOLD 2017 classification had a better discrimination ability for different risks of COPD exacerbation and hospitalization than GOLD 2013. Group DB was associated with a higher risk of moderate-to-severe exacerbation (HR = 1.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37–2.59, P <0.001) and hospitalization for COPD exacerbation (HR = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.29–3.85, P = 0.004) than group BB. However, during the last year of follow-up, the differences in the risks of frequent exacerbations and hospitalizations between group DB and BB were not statistically significant (frequent exacerbations: HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.51–2.03, P = 0.955; frequent hospitalizations: HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 0.58–4.78, P = 0.348). The mortality rates of the two groups were both approximately 9.0% during the entire follow-up period.Conclusions:The long-term prognosis of patients reclassified into group B and of those remaining in group B was similar, although patients reclassified from group D to group B had worse short-term outcomes. The GOLD 2017 revision could improve the assessment of Chinese COPD patients in terms of long-term prognosis.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Does the 2017 global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease revision really improve the assessment of Chinese chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients? A multicenter prospective study for more than 5 years

Cui

Dai

Long

et al. 2023

Chinese Medical Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Development and Validation of Prediction Models for Exacerbation, Frequent Exacerbations and Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Registry Study in North China

Zhou,

He,

Wang

et al. 2023

COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD. Methods A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD. Results The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies). Conclusions This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

show abstract

Does the 2017 revision improve the ability of GOLD to predict risk of future moderate and severe exacerbation?

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Does the 2017 global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease revision really improve the assessment of Chinese chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients? A multicenter prospective study for more than 5 years

Does the 2017 global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease revision really improve the assessment of Chinese chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients? A multicenter prospective study for more than 5 years

Development and Validation of Prediction Models for Exacerbation, Frequent Exacerbations and Severe Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Registry Study in North China

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About