Does the competitiveness of election moderate the impact of descriptive social norms on voter turnout? A survey experiment in Japan

Abstract

IntroThis article examines whether descriptive norms affect voters’ intention to vote in national elections in Japan and whether the impact of descriptive norms is moderated by the anticipated level of electoral competition. Social psychological research suggests that one's chance of voting is higher if they learn that many others are voting. On the other hand, knowing many others vote could make one think that their vote is not needed for influencing the election outcome, leading them to abstain.MethodTo test these competing expectations, I conducted a survey experiment in Japan in June 2022, presenting a hypothetical condition of the Lower House election and asking the respondents’ intention to vote in the hypothetical contest. I used a 2 × 2 design that varied (1) anticipated voter turnout (high turnout, low turnout) and (2) anticipated level of competition (high competition, low competition).ResultsI find that the descriptive norm of high voter turnout is positively associated with the chance of voting only when the expected level of competition is high.ConclusionThese are not consistent with the prior research demonstrating the strong influence of descriptive norms and the ones finding that the descriptive norm of nonparticipation leads to greater willingness to participate by generating the sense of threat.