Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?

Brook, Barry W.; Ellis, Erle C.; Perring, Michael P.; Mackay, Anson W.; Blomqvist, Linus

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.01.016

Cited by 230 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…1 Accordingly, there is a lively debate is on the size of climate damages we may su er (see e.g. Stern, 2007;IPCC, 2014;Nordhaus, 2014), and on the likelihood and e ects of overcoming tipping points in the Earth biophysical system (Greiner et al, 2010;Brook et al, 2013;Grune et al, 2015). 2 The impact of climate change and the design of adaptation and mitigation policies is commonly performed in climate economics by relying on integrated assessment models (IAMs), 3 which add a simple carbon cycle module to a computable general equilibrium barebone (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model

et al. 2017

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In this paperwe develop the first agent-based integrated assessment model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers' labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. We find the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages much larger than those estimated through standard IAMs. Our results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model

et al. 2017

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“…Despite a mixed reaction from the academic community, who have raised concerns about the existence of global tipping points for some of the dimensions (15)(16)(17) and the specific metrics used (18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23), the planetary boundaries concept has been used in proposals for defining the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (24)(25)(26). The SDGs will guide the international sus-…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa using a downscaled “safe and just space” framework

Cole

Bailey

New

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

119

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Nations in the 21st century face a complex mix of environmental and social challenges, as highlighted by the on-going Sustainable Development Goals process. The “planetary boundaries” concept [Rockström J, et al. (2009) Nature 461(7263):472–475], and its extension through the addition of social well-being indicators to create a framework for “safe and just” inclusive sustainable development [Raworth K (2012) Nature Climate Change 2(4):225–226], have received considerable attention in science and policy circles. As the chief aim of this framework is to influence public policy, and this happens largely at the national level, we assess whether it can be used at the national scale, using South Africa as a test case. We developed a decision-based methodology for downscaling the framework and created a national “barometer” for South Africa, combining 20 indicators and boundaries for environmental stress and social deprivation. We find that it is possible to maintain the original design and concept of the framework while making it meaningful in the national context, raising new questions and identifying priority areas for action. Our results show that South Africa has exceeded its environmental boundaries for biodiversity loss, marine harvesting, freshwater use, and climate change, and social deprivation is most severe in the areas of safety, income, and employment. Trends since 1994 show improvement in nearly all social indicators, but progression toward or over boundaries for most environmental indicators. The barometer shows that achieving inclusive sustainable development in South Africa requires national and global action on multiple fronts, and careful consideration of the interplay between different environmental domains and development strategies.

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“…The validity of framing the boundary in terms of extinction rates has been much debated [34,58]. Rockström et al [1] themselves concluded that 'science is, as yet, unable to provide a boundary measure that captures, at an aggregate level, the regulating role of biodiversity' and suggested that extinction rate is only an interim proxy indicator.…”

Section: Defining and Measuring The Safe Operating Spacementioning

confidence: 99%

The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The Planetary Boundaries (PB) framework represents a significant advance in specifying the ecological constraints on human development. However, to enable decision-makers in business and public policy to respect these constraints in strategic planning, the PB framework needs to be developed to generate practical tools. With this objective in mind, we analyse the recent literature and highlight three major scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the PB approach in decision-making: first, identification of thresholds or boundaries with associated metrics for different geographical scales; second, the need to frame approaches to allocate fair shares in the 'safe operating space' bounded by the PBs across the value chain and; third, the need for international bodies to co-ordinate the implementation of the measures needed to respect the Planetary Boundaries. For the first two of these challenges, we consider how they might be addressed for four PBs: climate change, freshwater use, biosphere integrity and chemical pollution and other novel entities. Four key opportunities are identified: (1) development of a common system of metrics that can be applied consistently at and across different scales; (2) setting 'distance from boundary' measures that can be applied at different scales; (3) development of global, preferably open-source, databases and models; and (4) advancing understanding of the interactions between the different PBs. Addressing the scientific and technical challenges in operationalizing the planetary boundaries needs be complemented with progress in addressing the equity and ethical issues in allocating the safe operating space between companies and sectors.

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Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?

Cited by 230 publications

References 67 publications

Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model

Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model

Tracking sustainable development with a national barometer for South Africa using a downscaled “safe and just space” framework

The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains

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