Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

Lee, Jong Wha; Pyun, Ju Hyun

doi:10.1111/rode.12222

Cited by 41 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Frijns et al () examine the relationship between political crises and stock market integration and show that political crises significantly reduced the degree of stock market integration in emerging markets. In a similar vein, previous studies on international trade also find significantly negative effects of interstate military conflicts on trade, and vice versa (e.g., Glick and Taylor, ; Lee and Pyun, ; Martin et al, ).…”

supporting

confidence: 68%

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

Huh¹,

Pyun²

2018

Asian Economic Journal

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We explore how investor attention paid to dangerous nuclear tests influences financial market outcomes. To measure the attention paid to North Korean nuclear threats, we introduce a weekly Google search volume index for keywords on North Korean nuclear events. Using a time-varying structural vector autoregression model with block exogeneity restrictions, we find that investor attention paid to nuclear threats has heterogeneous effects on South Korea's stock prices across industries and over time: attention on only the first nuclear test was negatively related to the stock price index, which vanished thereafter. Moreover, the investor attention paid to the nuclear risk reduced stock prices, especially in the banking industry, during the entire sample period.

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confidence: 68%

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

Huh¹,

Pyun²

2018

Asian Economic Journal

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“…Although the notion that trade between states helps promote security has been subject to debate in international relations, recent quantitative research demonstrates that trade integration between countries does reduce the likelihood of armed conflict, and that economic integration programs have often been initiated based on political and security benefits as much as they have economic gains (J. Lee & Pyun, 2016).…”

Section: Security Considerations Behind Rok–russia Economic Cooperationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moscow’s “turn to the East” and challenges to Russia–South Korea economic collaboration under the New Northern Policy

Rinna¹

2019

Journal of Eurasian Studies

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The Republic of Korea (ROK) has not traditionally regarded the Russian Federation as an important partner in the Korean security crisis. Nevertheless, the ROK–Russia relationship has grown by leaps and bounds. Furthermore, the Moon Jae-in administration’s “New Northern Policy,” which focuses especially on economic collaboration with Russia, exhibits a great deal of compatibility with the “turn to the East” in the Russian Federation’s recent foreign and domestic policies. For Seoul, the “New Northern Policy” is not simply a means of generating economic benefits for the ROK but is also part of Seoul’s plans for promoting peace on the Korean Peninsula. Indeed, the Kremlin shares with South Korea not only the goal of increased economic interconnectivity but also a lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. Nevertheless, two main barriers exist undermining aims outlined in the New Northern Policy. The continuation of the crisis over North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities, particularly the perpetuation of the various layers of sanctions against Pyongyang, frustrate the economic integration as espoused in the New Northern Policy. Furthermore, economic conditions within Russia, namely, a lack of economic development within the Russian Far East, frustrate South Korean hopes for greater trade connectivity with Russia. Substantial changes to both the Northeast Asian sub-regional order as well as in the Russian Federation’s domestic economic situation, therefore, are necessary before the prospects envisioned in Seoul’s New Northern Policy can be realized.

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“…The MID dataset (version 3.02) is transformed to dyadic events with corrections made by Maoz (2005). Martin et al (2008) and Lee and Pyun (2016) show that bilateral and multilateral trade affect interstate conflict significantly and vice versa. Sanction ijt is a binary variable coded as 1 if source country i imposes economic sanctions on country j.…”

Section: Iii1 Estimation Of Bilateral Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

North Korea’s Economic Integration and Growth Potential

Lee¹,

Pyun

2018

Asian Economic Journal

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The growth projections based on cross-country evidence show that North Korea could achieve higher economic growth in the long run if it embarks on substantial policy reforms toward a market-oriented and open economy. Using an empirical gravity model of trade and direct investment, we forecast that, when the two Koreas pursue economic integration and cooperation without military conflicts, North Korea's trade with South Korea can increase by up to 36 percent of North Korea's GDP and its foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from South Korea by up to 6 percent of GDP. Overall, by promoting trade and FDI integration with South Korea, North Korea can boost its GDP growth by approximately 3 percentage points per year. Combined with a market-oriented reform, the North Korean economy could grow by approximately 4.7 percent per year over the coming decades. Conversely, if more rigid sanctions imposed on North Korea become effective, its trade and investment will decrease and its GDP growth rate is expected to fall by approximately 2 percentage points per year.

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Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

Cited by 41 publications

References 30 publications

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

Moscow’s “turn to the East” and challenges to Russia–South Korea economic collaboration under the New Northern Policy

North Korea’s Economic Integration and Growth Potential

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