Does trade uncertainty in US and China influence Indian banking stability: An analysis through the lens of banking regulation and compliance

Abstract

Purpose A recent literature has documented the real effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) on trade, stock markets and unemployment; however, there is no specific study that has examined how trade uncertainty influences banking sector stability. In this quest, this study aims to bridge this gap by examining the impact of TPU in the USA and China on the stability of the Indian banking sector. Additionally, the study aims to assess the moderating influence of banking regulation and supervision on the aforementioned relationship. Design/methodology/approach To quantify the above objectives, the study uses a robust set of econometric estimates, i.e. system generalised method of moments (Sys-GMM), fixed effect model and pair-wise Granger causality test on the alternative proxies of banking stability from 2000 to 2023. Findings The empirical estimates validate that TPU has a negative impact on the Indian banking stability. Moreover, the impact of the USA. TPU is much more significant on the Indian banking sector’s stability in comparison to the Chinese TPU. The empirical model further suggests that banking regulation and supervision moderate the negative influence of trade uncertainties on the Indian banking sector’s stability and assist in improving it. Finally, the pairwise causality test confirms a unidirectional causal relationship between the TPU in the USA and China and the stability of the Indian banking sector, thereby validating the transmission effect of trade uncertainty on this sector. Originality/value To the best of the author’s study, this study is original and offers useful policy recommendations for understanding the implications of trade uncertainty for banking stability. The study also offers insight to comprehend the role of banking regulation and compliance in mitigating the adverse repercussion of trade uncertainties on the banking sector’s stability.