Downstream Effects of Voting on Turnout and Political Preferences: Long-Run Evidence from the UK

Abstract

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Does Voting in One Election Reduce the Expected Cost of Voting in Subsequent Elections?

“…The fact that voting in one election is associated with voting in the next election is often interpreted as meaning that voting becomes a habit. This interpretation has been questioned in recent research (Blais and Daoust, 2020;Jessen et al, 2021;Dunaski, 2021). In the case of Brazil, for instance, Dunaski (2021: 7) finds "no evidence that compulsory voting is habit-forming."…”

“…Many scholars have interpreted this finding as evidence for habit formation (Green and Shachar, 2000;Denny and Doyle, 2009;Meredith, 2009;Dinas, 2012;Fujiwara et al, 2016;Plutzer, 2002); this is the idea that voting becomes automatic. The validity of the habit formation hypothesis has also been questioned (Bhatti et al, 2016;Bechtel et al, 2018;Blais and Daoust, 2020;Hernaes, 2019;Jessen et al, 2021).…”

Democratization Boost or Bust? Electoral Turnout After Democratic Transitions

“…7. While voting is conceptualized as a habit in this paper, it does not consider this to be an automatic behaviour as discussed in some of the existing literature (Blais & Daoust, 2020;Jessen et al, 2021;Kostadinova, 2003). It refers to a behavioural pattern that develops over time, but which is influenced by the context within which it develops and which is being shaped also by the context within which it is manifested (Aldrich et al, 2011).…”

Election Frequency and Voter Turnout

“…When a 2016 academic pre-election survey (Lago et al, 2017) asked Spanish voters how often elections should be held, 66% of the 5 Besides the direct effects considered in this paper, election frequency could exert indirect long-term effects on participation through electoral socialization (Franklin & Hobolt, 2011). However, recent research using inter alia population data and panel studies casts significant doubts on such effects of second-order elections (Bhatti et al, 2016), and, more generally, the effect of electoral socialization on long-term trends in participation (Blais & Daoust, 2020;Kostelka & Blais, 2021;Jessen et al, 2021). respondents said once every four years, 15% did not know, and only 20% chose the last option: the more often the better.…”

“…5.Besides the direct effects considered in this paper, election frequency could exert indirect long-term effects on participation through electoral socialization (Franklin & Hobolt, 2011). However, recent research using inter alia population data and panel studies casts significant doubts on such effects of second-order elections (Bhatti et al, 2016), and, more generally, the effect of electoral socialization on long-term trends in participation (Blais & Daoust, 2020; Jessen et al, 2021; Kostelka & Blais, 2021). …”