Duration of the constitution-making process as an indicator of post-constitutional political uncertainty: The insurance theory revisited

Abstract

Criticizing the insurance theory, this article asserts that to measure post-constitutional political uncertainty, one should consider not only the power distribution among the ‘political’ actors but the power distribution among all actors involved in the constitution-making process, including the public and civil society. Comparing the constitution-making processes of the constitutions of Egypt (2012) and Tunisia (2014), this study presents the duration of the constitution-making process as an alternative measure of power distribution among all actors. The theoretical framework asserts that the long constitution-making process increases the possibility of deliberation at the public level. That will help to develop trust among polarized political actors and improve political actors’ perception of the public as a credible control and constraint mechanism. This will ensure that the incoming government will respect the newly established institutions and lead to the establishment of an independent and powerful judiciary. In the second part of the article, to test this argument, I use a large dataset that covers information on the content and design processes of 140 countries’ most recent constitutions adopted between 1945 and 2018. The empirical results indicate that as the duration of the constitution-making increases, the number of constitutional guarantees for judicial independence also increases.