Dying Light: War and Trade of the Separatist-Controlled Areas of Ukraine

Kochnev, Artem

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3579099

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In light of all the above, we can expect that not only the Donbass but also other Ukrainian regions were damaged by the conflict, in which case our estimated average GDP decline (43% for Donetsk and 52% for Luhansk) would represent an underestimate of the true causal effects for the Donbass region. Interestingly, using a difference-in-differences design and luminosity data to proxy for economic development, Kochnev (2019a) reports similar estimates, namely, a decrease in economic activity by 38% and 51% in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, respectively.…”

Section: Mechanisms Underlying the Gdp Decline Causal To The Warmentioning

confidence: 84%

The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine

Bluszcz

Valente

2020

Defence and Peace Economics

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With more than ten thousand casualties, the ongoing hybrid Ukrainian war between pro-Russian separatists and the government in the Donbass region, Ukraine's productive core, has taken a severe toll on the country. Using cross-country panel data over the period 1995-2017, this paper estimates the causal effects of the Donbass war on Ukraine's GDP. Our counterfactual estimation by the synthetic control method shows that Ukraine's per capita GDP foregone due to the war amounts to 15.1% on average for 2013-2017. Separate analysis for the affected regions of Donetsk and Luhansk indicates an average causal effect of 47% for 2013-2016. Results are robust to pre-war confounds, namely, the Orange Revolution and Ukrainian-Russian gas disputes. As such, we discuss mechanisms underlying the war's causal effects on economic performance, which is of broader relevance for debates on the role of government in hybrid conflict management.

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Section: Mechanisms Underlying the Gdp Decline Causal To The Warmentioning

confidence: 84%

The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine

Bluszcz

Valente

2020

Defence and Peace Economics

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“…For instance, in 2013, prior to the war, Donbas accounted for 21.4% of Ukrainian total exports and 7.9% of its total imports (Mykhnenko, 2020). The war in the Donbas has also caused the destruction of production equipment and infrastructure, including railways and electricity lines (Kochnev, 2019). Since the Donbas is a key industrial region of Ukraine, it is unsurprising that there have been significant losses in the production and export of Ukraine's industrial goods due to Russia's war and occupation.…”

Section: Eu-ukraine Aa/dcftamentioning

confidence: 99%

International trade and Ukraine's pursuit of self‐determination

Boyko,

Nes,

Schaefer

2023

World Economy

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In this research, we assess the international trade implications of Ukraine's pursuit of self‐determination through the lens of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement and the contemporaneous war with Russia in the years preceding the 2022 Russian Invasion. To do so, we construct a dataset with annual, bilateral export and import flows for Ukraine and a set of comparator countries at the 6‐digit level of the Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) for years 2000–2019. Using this data, we nest a difference‐in‐difference design within a series of econometric gravity models to estimate the effects on the sectoral and geographic composition of Ukrainian trade. Our results indicate a major re‐direction of exports towards the EU and away from Russia. Trade outcomes are one of many considerations that led to Ukraine's pursuit of EU integration.

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“…However unlike other satellite systems, EO satellite data is unique in its distribution model; in general, dedicated ground stations receive and process the raw satellite data, which is distributed over the internet to vast numbers of users. This amplifies the impact of an EO system attack across the downstream systems, which increasingly include satellite data startups, research activities, and government programs [4], [20], [29].…”

Section: Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Attacks against EO systems are motivated by their effect on both the ground station, but also the satellite-derived datasets (SDDs) which are distributed to end users. A growing market for specific purpose SDDs has emerged, including for forest fire monitoring [29], dust storm detection [52], flood tracking [4], and analysis of activities in conflict areas [20].…”

Section: B Satellite Derived Data Sets and Use Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Firefly: Spoofing Earth Observation Satellite Data through Radio Overshadowing

Salkield,

Köhler,

Birnbach

et al. 2023

Proceedings 2023 Workshop on Security of Space and Satellite Systems

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Data from Earth Observation satellites has become crucial in private enterprises, research applications, and in coordinating national responses to events such as forest fires. These purposes are supported by data derived from a variety of satellites, some of which do not secure the wireless downlink channel effectively. This opens the door for modern adversaries to conduct spoofing attacks by overshadowing the signal with commercially available radio equipment.In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of current Earth Observation systems to spoofing attacks conducted at the physical layer. The effect of these attacks is amplified since the data is received at dedicated ground stations and distributed to hundreds of downstream systems, which are themselves not designed with security in mind. Specifically, we take NASA's live forest fire detection system as a case study, and demonstrate that the attacker can achieve arbitrary manipulation of fires in the derived dataset to trigger false emergency responses or mislead crisis analysis. We also assess the attack surface presented by ground station software which implicitly trusts data from the RF port. Against the NASA system we uncover several new vulnerabilities that can be exploited to stealthily deny service.We conclude with a discussion of physical-layer countermeasures to detect and defend against spoofing, which can be implemented in existing deployments at the ground station.

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Dying Light: War and Trade of the Separatist-Controlled Areas of Ukraine

Cited by 4 publications

References 23 publications

The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine

The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine

International trade and Ukraine's pursuit of self‐determination

Firefly: Spoofing Earth Observation Satellite Data through Radio Overshadowing

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