Dynamic Correction of the Construction Projects Scheduling Implementation under Stochastic Influences

Abstract

The research results of this paper show that parameters of the catch-up schedule are determined by the dynamics of time-averaged volumes, rates and accelerations of construction jobs only when discrete nature of resources consumed has a weak influence on the rate of project jobs. On the other hand, if the speed of job is determined by the use of nostockable resources, the dynamics of jobs volume demonstrates the weak sensitivity both to the discrete nature of resources and to external stochastic influences. In this, the speed and acceleration of jobs experience jumps at the times of changes in the number of resources used. Thus, a time-averaging operation leads to the loss of information about these features of construction dynamics. In this paper the algorithms for stochastic factors accounting (characterized by different influences on the project implementation) are formulated. Moreover, the algorithm for forming the catch-up jobs schedule is obtained based on the results of monitoring of the jobs pace and averaging only over periods of a constant composition of a number of discrete resources. Furthermore, both empirical methods of separation of stochastic and deterministic impacts on the project implementation, as well as a method based on the qualitative difference in the Fourier spectra of stochastic and deterministic functions, have been developed. The limits of applicability of the empirical and exact methods are analyzed. It is shown that the Fourier analysis of the monitoring results allows to completely recover the deterministic information even against the background of the stochastic signal that coincides with it. It is shown that the proposed algorithm makes the formulation of catch-up jobs scheduling parameters possible, allowing to avoid financial and image losses associated with the untimely end of the project or its main parts.