Dynamical Systems Theory Sheds New Light on Compound Climate Extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Luca, Paolo De; Messori, Gabriele; Pons, Flavio; Faranda, Davide

doi:10.31223/osf.io/qdn5w

Cited by 13 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The use of metrics, for both (multi)hazard/risk quantification, is nowadays common practice (e.g. Cutter et al, 2008;De Luca et al, 2019b;Ekström et al, 2018;Forzieri et al, 2016;Hao et al, 2018;Russo et al, 2015). One of the main advantages of metrics is that they can be useful for translating observed or projected impacts of one or more natural hazards to the wider community, nonexperts included.…”

Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, their formulation and description need to be simple, pragmatic and directly connected to the main physical process under investigation. Metrics can also summarise complex processes purely defined on a mathematical level, for example in the phase-space, and at the same time provide information about the dynamics of compound hazards (De Luca et al, 2019b;Faranda et al, 2017a;Messori et al, 2017). There is therefore hope that metrics will be eventually used by stakeholders and public agencies to better prepare, communicate and adapt to (multi)hazards/risks.…”

Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Malamud, 2017, 2014;Kappes et al, 2012bKappes et al, , 2012aLeonard et al, 2014;Terzi et al, 2019;Tilloy et al, 2019;Zscheischler et al, 2018) and numerous studies investigating diverse interrelationships between the perils (e.g. Collet et al, 2018;De Luca et al, 2019b;Koks et al, 2019;Martius et al, 2016;Visser-Quinn et al, 2019;Ward et al, 2018), very little has been done with respect to future climate projections of compound events (Ben-Ari et al, 2018;Forzieri et al, 2016;Zscheischler and Seneviratne, 2017). Thus, a general way forward within the field of multi-hazards would be indeed to build international projects, between research institutes, universities, companies and policy makers, focussed on future scenarios of multi-hazard events under a warming world.…”

Section: Concluding Remarks About Multi-hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…atmospheric rivers driving storm surges and river flooding); iv) spatio-temporal shifts in the distribution of multi-hazards and v) the application of multivariate extreme value statistics (e.g. and dynamical systems theory (De Luca et al, 2019b;Faranda et al, 2017bFaranda et al, , 2017aHochman et al, 2019;Lucarini et al, 2016Lucarini et al, , 2012Messori et al, 2017;Rodrigues et al, 2018) to climate projections (Faranda et al, 2019). Such research efforts could also focus on different spatial scales, from cities, to countries, continents and global areas.…”

Section: Concluding Remarks About Multi-hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

Luca¹

2020

Preprint

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Interactions between multiple hazards can cause socio-economic damages that exceed those expected by the individual hazard components. Over the past decade, the multi-hazards paradigm has emerged to the extent that the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 advocated a multi-hazard approach. This thesis examines three types of concurrent hydroclimatic hazards that can occur at catchment to global scales. The first multi-hazard is the link between multi-basin flooding (MBF) and extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) over Great Britain during the period 1975-2014. Results show that during the most geographically widespread MBF episode, up to 108 river catchments (or ~46% of the study area) recorded a peak flow annual maximum within a 16-day window. Most extreme MBF episodes were linked to cyclonic Lamb Weather Types (LWTs), atmospheric rivers and very severe gales. These episodes were associated with significant socio-economic impacts due to widespread flooding. The second hazard was observed (1971-2000) and projected (2011-2100) LWTs, whose seasonal frequency and persistence are associated with multi-hazards over the British Isles. Daily sea-level-pressure data from two reanalyses products, one subjective weather pattern catalogue and an ensemble of 10 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) were used to compute LWTs. Results showed that the AOGCMs are overall able to reproduce historical weather pattern persistence, which, along with annual frequency, is projected to significantly increase anticyclonic and decrease cyclonic LWTs, in summer and autumn respectively. This implies a higher risk of drought, heatwaves and air pollution events in summer but reduced likelihood of flooding and severe gales in autumn by the end of the 21st century. By 2100, the AOGCMs suggest an increased risk of concurrent flood-wind hazards during winter. In summer, the strength of the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) of London is expected to intensify by the end of the century, contributing to higher chances of combined heatwave-air pollution events. The third type of multi-hazard investigated was the spatio-temporal concurrence of global wet and dry hydrological extremes, during the 1950-2014 period. The analysis was conducted using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm). Results showed that the land area impacted by extreme dry and wet-dry events significantly increased over the observational period. The most geographically widespread wet-dry event covered a total area of 21 million km2 (or 14% of the global land area) with documented flood and drought impacts over diverse regions. Two new metrics were developed to provide more insight into the combined wet and dry hazards: the wet-dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transitions (ET) time interval. The former quantifies the predominance of wet or dry extremes over a given area, whereas the ET measures the average separation time between the opposite extremes (i.e. between wet to dry or dry to wet transitions). The WD-ratio reveals a predominance of wet over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern south America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China and most of Australia. The ET median for wet to dry is ~27 months, and 21 months for dry to wet. Global correlations between wet-dry hydrological extremes and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and American Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) were also investigated. ENSO and PDO showed similar correlation patterns, with the former significantly impacting a larger area. On the other hand, the AMO showed an almost inverse spatial correlation pattern, with an overall larger area impacted. The findings presented in this thesis could be informative for emergency responders and relief agencies, disaster risk reduction practitioners, and (re)insurance companies. For instance, multi-basin flooding co-occurring with ETCs could overwhelm emergency response that depends on support from neighbouring regions that are similarly affected. Economic damages could exceed those insured by households and businesses. Projected rises in nocturnal UHI intensity in London could exacerbate heat-stress and, when combined with episodes of poor air quality, increase the likelihood of health problems amongst vulnerable groups. Furthermore, concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes could be significant for organizations with global assets or sensitive supply chains, and the hydropower, agricultural and transport sectors. Global maps generated of major wet-dry events and the WD-ratio could also be integrated into a seasonal forecasting product, to help stakeholders in hedging the risk. Key opportunities for further research on multi-hazards are future hydroclimatic projections in the light of anthropogenic climate change and the application of new statistical techniques that could help in discerning the driving physical processes.

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Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Concluding Remarks About Multi-hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Concluding Remarks About Multi-hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

Luca¹

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…As final product, one obtains a value of d and θ −1 for every time step and variable in the dataset. This approach has been successfully tested on a variety of climate datasets (e.g., Faranda et al, 2017a;Rodrigues et al, 2018;Scher and Messori, 2019;Hochman et al, 2019a, b;De Luca et al, 2019;Faranda et al, 2020), and is more generally applicable to a broad range of chaotic dynamical systems. For a detailed derivation of d and θ −1 , we refer the reader to Lucarini et al (2016) and Faranda et al (2019a, b).…”

Section: Dynamical Systems Metricsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dynamical Systems Characterisation of Atmospheric Jet Regimes

Messori¹,

Harnik²,

Madonna³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Atmospheric jet streams are typically separated into primarily eddy-driven, or polar-front jets and primarily thermally-driven, or "subtropical" jets. Some regions also display merged jets, resulting from the (quasi) co-location of the regions of eddy generation with the subtropical jet. The different locations and driving mechanisms of these jets issue from very different underlying mechanisms, and result in very different jet characteristics. Here, we link our understanding of the dynamical jet maintenance mechanisms, mostly issuing from conceptual or idealised models, to the phenomena observed in reanalysis data. We specifically focus on developing a unitary analysis framework, grounded in dynamical systems theory, which may be applied to both idealised model and reanalysis data, and allow for direct intercomparison. Our results provide a proof-of-concept for using dynamical systems indicators to diagnose jet regimes in a versatile, conceptually intuitive and computationally efficient fashion.

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Daily synoptic conditions associated with occurrences of compound events in estuaries along North Atlantic coastlines

Camus

Haigh

Wahl

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Coastal compound flooding events occur when extreme events of rainfall, river discharge and sea level coincide and collectively increase water surface elevation, exacerbating flooding. The meteorological conditions that generate these events are usually low-pressure systems that generate high winds and intense rainfall. In this study, we identify the types of synoptic atmospheric conditions that are typically associated with coastal compound events using a weathertype approach, for the North Atlantic coastlines (encompassing northwest Europe and the east coast of the United States). Compound events are identified along the estuaries of the study region from 1980 to 2014 based on an impact function defined by water surface elevation that resulted from the combination of river discharge and sea level. We find that compound events are more frequent along European as opposed to U.S. coastlines. In both cases, they are associated with a few dominant weather patterns. European hotspots of compound events are concentrated in the west coast of United Kingdom, the northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula and around the Strait of Gibraltar.These areas share the same weather patterns which represent the main pathways of storms that cross the North Atlantic Ocean. In the case of U.S. locations, the areas with highest number of compound events are located mainly in the Gulf of Mexico and along Mexico and along the mid-eastern U.S. coastlines. In these areas, compound events are produced by transitional weather patterns, which describe storms that travel northward parallel to the coastline. Splitting the occurrence of compound events in the corresponding weather types discriminates the interannual variability based on the relationship with dominant climate indices in the North Atlantic Ocean.

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Dynamical Systems Theory Sheds New Light on Compound Climate Extremes in Europe and Eastern North America

Cited by 13 publications

References 75 publications

Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

Concurrent Hydroclimatic Hazards from Catchment to Global Scales

A Dynamical Systems Characterisation of Atmospheric Jet Regimes

Daily synoptic conditions associated with occurrences of compound events in estuaries along North Atlantic coastlines

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