2017
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-16-0018.1
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Abstract: The dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard’s near–rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the dete… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
3
2

Citation Types

8
45
3

Year Published

2018
2018
2024
2024

Publication Types

Select...
6
1

Relationship

2
5

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 46 publications
(56 citation statements)
references
References 51 publications
8
45
3
Order By: Relevance
“…As shown in Figure a, some members, with both early and late intensification, had quite large initial tilt magnitudes due to the moderate‐weak environmental shear. The entire ensemble exhibited rapidly decreasing tilt magnitudes after the model initialization, being smaller than 40 km at the RI onset (Figure a), which is consistent with the findings in Munsell et al (). It should be noted that RI did not always occur immediately after the vortex tilt magnitude decreased significantly (Figure c).…”
Section: Ensemble Forecast and Sensitivity Analysissupporting
confidence: 90%
See 3 more Smart Citations
“…As shown in Figure a, some members, with both early and late intensification, had quite large initial tilt magnitudes due to the moderate‐weak environmental shear. The entire ensemble exhibited rapidly decreasing tilt magnitudes after the model initialization, being smaller than 40 km at the RI onset (Figure a), which is consistent with the findings in Munsell et al (). It should be noted that RI did not always occur immediately after the vortex tilt magnitude decreased significantly (Figure c).…”
Section: Ensemble Forecast and Sensitivity Analysissupporting
confidence: 90%
“…Previous studies show that a stronger initial vortex is more likely to intensify quickly, regardless certain unfavorable environmental conditions (Emanuel & Zhang, ; Munsell et al, , ; Torn & Cook, ; Zhang & Emanuel, ). This was also the case in the ensemble simulations of Usagi (Figure b).…”
Section: Ensemble Forecast and Sensitivity Analysismentioning
confidence: 95%
See 2 more Smart Citations
“…In recently published papers, the predictability and various causes of the loss of predictability of other hazards related to severe storms, including tornadoes, heavy rainfall, severe convective winds, and tropical cyclones, have been quantified using ensemble simulations (Durran & Weyn, ; Emanuel & Zhang, ; Fernández‐González et al, ; Flora et al, ; Miglietta et al, , ; Munsell et al, ; Nielsen & Schumacher, ; Weyn & Durran, , ; Zhang et al, , ; Zhang & Tao, ). For example, the practical and intrinsic predictability of a tornadic supercell have been explored from the perspective of convection initiation time, which was strongly modulated by the evolution of the planetary boundary layer, and local topography (Zhang et al, , ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%