Dynamics and Predictions of Urban Expansion in Java, Indonesia: Continuity and Change in Mega-Urbanization

Abstract

This paper is situated within the discussion of mega-urbanization, a particular urbanization process that entails a large-scale agglomeration. In this paper, our focus is on urbanization in Java, Indonesia’s most dynamic region. We add to the literature by investigating the change and prediction of the land use/land cover (LULC) of mega-urbanization in Java. This research uses a vector machine approach to support the classification of land cover change dynamics, cellular automata-Markov (CA Markov), and the Klassen typology technique. This paper indicates that major metropolitan areas are still expanding in terms of built-up areas, generating a larger urban agglomeration. However, attention should be also given to the urbanization process outside existing metropolis’ boundaries given that more than half of the built-up land coverage in Java is located in non-metropolitan areas. In terms of future direction, the projection results for 2032 show that the Conservative scenario can reduce and slow down the increase in built-up land on the island of Java. On the other hand, the Spatial Plan (RTRW) scenario facilitates a rapid increase in the LULC of built-up land from 2019. The urban spatial dynamics in Java raises challenges for urban and regional planning as the process is taking place across multiple administrative authorities.