Early Adaptive Evaluation Scheme for Data-Driven Calibration in Forest Fire Spread Prediction

Fraga, Edigley; Cortés, Ana; Cencerrado, Andrés; Hernández, Porfidio; Margalef, Tomás

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-50433-5_2

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…More recently, the study in [33] introduced a new strategy to deal with individuals with long execution times. An alternative approach is introduced, based on the monitoring of the fire spread prediction error that, in this particular work, corresponds to the symmetric difference between the real fire and the simulated fire areas, shown in Equation (23).…”

Section: Calibration Through Parallel Computingmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Genetic Algorithm Approaches for Wildfire Spread Prediction Calibration

et al. 2022

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Wildfires are complex natural events that cause significant environmental and property damage, as well as human losses, every year throughout the world. In order to aid in their management and mitigate their impact, efforts have been directed towards developing decision support systems that can predict wildfire propagation. Most of the available tools for wildfire spread prediction are based on the Rothermel model that, apart from being relatively complex and computing demanding, depends on several input parameters concerning the local fuels, wind or topography, which are difficult to obtain with a minimum resolution and degree of accuracy. These factors are leading causes for the deviations between the predicted fire propagation and the real fire propagation. In this sense, this paper conducts a literature review on optimization methodologies for wildfire spread prediction based on the use of evolutionary algorithms for input parameter set calibration. In the present literature review, it was observed that the current literature on wildfire spread prediction calibration is mostly focused on methodologies based on genetic algorithms (GAs). Inline with this trend, this paper presents an application of genetic algorithms for the calibration of a set of the Rothermel model’s input parameters, namely: surface-area-to-volume ratio, fuel bed depth, fuel moisture, and midflame wind speed. The GA was validated on 37 real datasets obtained through experimental prescribed fires in controlled conditions.

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Section: Calibration Through Parallel Computingmentioning

confidence: 99%