Earthquake prediction: a new physical basis

Crampin, Staurt; Evans, Russ; Atkinson, Barry Kean

doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1984.tb05030.x

Cited by 223 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In industrial seismology shear-wave splitting is frequently interpreted in terms of macro-fractures enabling oil flow and aiding hydrocarbon production. Although recognising that large fractures may affect shear-wave splitting [50,51], we suggest that stress-aligned fluid-saturated microcracks are the major source of shear-wave splitting [52]. One way to distinguish crack size is by measuring and interpreting frequency-dependent seismic attenuation, where squirt flow is (probably) the dominant mechanism.…”

Section: Significance Of Pore Space In Porous Rocks: Squirt Flow Thementioning

confidence: 99%

A review of shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth

Crampin¹,

Peacock²

2005

Wave Motion

167

111

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Section: Significance Of Pore Space In Porous Rocks: Squirt Flow Thementioning

confidence: 99%

A review of shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth

Crampin¹,

Peacock²

2005

Wave Motion

167

111

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“…These investigations have shown that crack propagation rates are highly dependent on moisture content and stress rates and, more importantly, that subcritical fracture growth continues at stress levels that are less than 20% of those required for catastrophic failure (MEREDITH and ATKINSON, 1983;ATKINSON, 1984;FREIMAN, 1984). Recent papers by CRAMPIN et a/., (1984) and CRAMPIN (1987) have suggested that several geophysical earthquake precursors could be explained by pervasive subcritical crack growth and I would suggest that this same phenomenon could also account for many of the dissolved gas and ground gas chemical anomalies that have been observed at substantial distances from an impending earthquake. The contribution of the IRSA model to precursory changes in dissolved ion chemistry is, however, likely to be limited because of the slow reaction rate of most minerals with groundwaters.…”

Section: Increased Reactive Surface Area Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geochemical precursors to seismic activity

Thomas

1988

PAGEOPH

227

112

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Abstract-Studies of earthquake precursory phenomena during the last several decades have found that significant geophysical and geochemical changes can occur prior to intermediate and large earthquakes. Among the more intensely investigated geochemical phenomena have been: (1) changes in the concentrations of dissolved ions and gases in groundwaters and (2) variations in the concentrations of crustal and mantle volatiles in ground gases. The concentration changes have typically showed no consistent trend (either increasing or decreasing), and the spatial and temporal distribution of the observed anomalies have been highly variable. As a result, there is little agreement on the physical or chemical processes responsible for the observed anomalies. Mechanisms proposed to account for precursory groundwater anomalies include ultrasonic vibration, pressure sensitive solubility, pore volume collapse, fracture induced increases in reactive surfaces, and aquifer breaching/fluid mixing. Precursory changes in soil gas composition have been suggested to result from pore volume collapse, micro-fracture induced exposure of fresh reactive silicate surfaces, and breaching of buried gas-rich horizons. An analysis of the available field and laboratory data suggests that the aquifer breaching/fluid mixing (AB/FM) model can best account for many of the reported changes in temperature, dissolved ion and dissolved gas concentrations in groundwater. Ultrasonic vibration and pressure sensitive solubility models cannot reasonably account for the geochemical variations observed and, although the pore collapse model could explain some of the observed chemical changes in groundwater and ground gas, uncertainties remain regarding its ability to generate anomalies of the magnitude observed. Other geochemical anomalies, in particular those associated with hydrogen and radon, seem best accounted for by increases in reactive surface areas (IRSA model) that may accompany precursory deformation around the epicenter of an impending earthquake. Analysis of the probable response of these models to the earthquake preparation process, as well as to other environmental factors, suggests that geochemical monitoring programs can provide information that may be valuable in forecasting the probability of an earthquake; however, because of the complexity of the earthquake preparation process, the absolute prediction of seismic events using geochemical methods alone, does not presently appear to be feasible.

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“…For instance, Crampin et al (1984) suggest that fluidfilled microcracks and intergranular pore spaces may be reactivated before the main shock in the earthquake preparation zone. It is generally well established that fluid-saturated regions may provide more insights for the understanding of precursors of seismic events (Rice & Rudnicki 1979;Roeloffs 1988;Sammonds et al 1992;Park et al 1993;Chadha et al 2003;Skelton et al 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Subsurface fluid distribution and possible seismic precursory signal at the Salse di Nirano mud volcanic field, Italy

Lupi¹,

Ricci

Kenkel

et al. 2015

Geophys. J. Int.

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S U M M A R YMud volcanoes are geological systems often characterized by elevated fluid pressures at depth deviating from hydrostatic conditions. This near-critical state makes mud volcanoes particularly sensitive to external forcing induced by natural or man-made perturbations. We used the Nirano mud volcanic field as a natural laboratory to test pre-and post-seismic effects generated by distant earthquakes. We first characterized the subsurface structure of the Nirano mud volcanic field with a geoelectrical study. Next, we deployed a broad-band seismic station in the area to understand the typical seismic signal generated by the mud volcano. Seismic records show a background noise below 2 s, sometimes interrupted by pulses of drumbeatlike high-frequency signals lasting from several minutes to hours. To date this is the first observation of drumbeat signal observed in mud volcanoes.In 2013 June we recorded a M4.7 earthquake, that occurred approximately 60 km far from our seismic station. According to empirical estimations the Nirano mud volcanic field should not have been affected by the M4.7 earthquake. Yet, before the seismic event we recorded an increasing amplitude of the signal in the 10-20 Hz frequency band. The signal emerged approximately two hours before the earthquake and lasted for about three hours. Our statistical analysis suggests the presence of a possible precursory signal about 10 min before the earthquake.

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Earthquake prediction: a new physical basis

Cited by 223 publications

References 40 publications

A review of shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth

A review of shear-wave splitting in the compliant crack-critical anisotropic Earth

Geochemical precursors to seismic activity

Subsurface fluid distribution and possible seismic precursory signal at the Salse di Nirano mud volcanic field, Italy

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