Earthquake prediction modeling using dynamic changes (Case Study: Alborz Region)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the computational effect of Earth's viscosity on the Coulomb stress changes. Therefore, several large earthquakes in the Alborz region are selected and Coulomb stress changes are calculated in them, then the Coulomb stress temporal changes are shown by assuming the earth as an elastic layer on a viscous-elastic half-space. The spatial and temporal changes of the crustal deformation process associated with earthquakes depend on several parameters including the thickness of the lithosphere, viscosity of the asthenosphere, and dip angle of fault. The findings of this study are presented by determining the impact of modeling results on each of the input parameters through the sensitivity analysis of co-seismic and post-seismic deformation due to the dip-slip and strike-slip faulting. In addition to the useful results reported for the impact of parameters, the obtained results indicate the occurrence of numerous aftershocks in a region with increased Coulomb stress from 0.1 to 0.8 bar and the non-occurrence or low-occurrence of aftershocks in a region with reduced Coulomb stress. In addition to the predicted locations of aftershocks, it is also possible to determine the location of the next major earthquake using Coulomb stress change calculations.

An Experimental Study on the Socketed Pile in Soft Rock

“…Almost in every construction project, 1000mm to 1200mm diameter piles are used. As these piles are built for heavy loads, they are basically to be lowered to the rock surface and need to be inserted into the rock [1]. The socket in the rock layer is absolutely necessary when the piles rest just on a rock at shallow depths.…”