Earthquake risk assessment using OpenQuake and GIS: A case study of Cyprus.

Abstract

In recent times, earthquakes have surpassed droughts and floods as the most devastating natural disasters. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to evaluate, analyze, and simulate the seismic vulnerability of Cyprus. The outcomes will be invaluable for humanitarian and governmental organizations in the face of large-scale calamities, as well as for implementing preventive measures to mitigate earthquake impacts. To achieve this, the research focused on assessing the seismic vulnerability of buildings in Cyprus through seismic hazard analysis and the development of vulnerability curves. Two scenarios were employed to determine the potential damage caused by ground accelerations on different structures and elements. The proposed methodology offers effective solutions for disaster management and risk reduction in the region, offering a comprehensive evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of buildings in Cyprus. Additionally, a risk analysis map was utilized to estimate the seismic losses incurred by the buildings under investigation. The results indicate that, on average, the first and second earthquake scenarios resulted in structural damage percentages of 29% and 43% respectively. Moreover, simulation results indicate that, in the worst-case scenario, approximately 2% of the buildings in Cyprus could be destroyed. These findings provide valuable insights for reducing the vulnerability of buildings in Cyprus to earthquake events.