Ecological resources of boreal forests in the adsorption of greenhouse gases and in adaptation to global warming

Abstract

One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris (2015) Agreement on Climate Change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the absorption of CO2 by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming and 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Given report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forest formations in the Oka-Volga River basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their isomorphic-restorative potential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. For the territory of the Oka river basin using multiple regression methods, a numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. A total of 11 linear equations were obtained (with a significance level of P <10-6). In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall elastic-plastic stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to absorb greenhouse gases. A comparison of the carbon balance values ​​of forest formations obtained with initial (base) and final (final) stability indices gives an unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with an increase in their regenerative potential. A decisive contribution to increasing the adsorption of greenhouse gases is made by the growth of reforestation adaptation, which plays the role of a direct environmental factor.